Over the past 24 to 48 hours, gold (XAUUSD) experienced significant volatility, with prices fluctuating sharply from the previous closing price of 4706.69 USD. Prices plunged to a low near 4402 USD before rebounding, highlighting the current high uncertainty and corrective pressure in the gold market.

Recent analysis suggests that gold and silver could face an additional 8 to 9 weeks of corrective action. This forecast ties closely with the volatility in U.S. stocks and the risk of Bitcoin breaking down below 89K, illustrating the interplay between safe-haven and high-risk assets. Although U.S. stocks briefly recovered, tech stocks continued to struggle amid concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, creating a cautious market atmosphere that indirectly pressured gold prices.

For the average investor, this period of fluctuation means that while gold remains a traditional safe haven, it can still undergo notable price corrections amid current macroeconomic and market conditions. Investors should prepare for such adjustments, understanding that recent price dips do not indicate a loss of value but rather a market seeking a more reasonable level to absorb capital and volatility.

Daily Chart

The daily chart of XAUUSD reveals a clear corrective phase following an all-time high near 5602 USD. The price is currently testing critical support zones between 4428 and 4744 USD. Moving averages (short, medium, and long-term) are all bending downwards indicating weakening trend momentum. Bollinger Bands show price nearing the lower band, hinting at a possible technical bounce. However, the MACD remains in negative territory with a slight contraction in the histogram but no conclusive buy signal yet.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, notable price swings over the past 3-5 days highlight increased intraday volatility. Gold attempted to break above the 4450 USD level but faced resistance near short-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, signaling a consolidation, while the MACD lines are approaching a possible bullish crossover which may support a short-term rebound. A bearish doji candle recently formed, indicating indecision between bulls and bears and suggesting traders should watch for a breakout confirmation.

Technical Trend:  Currently experiencing volatile consolidation with an overall cautious bearish outlook amid corrective adjustment.

Technically, the potential MACD bullish crossover combined with the price testing the lower Bollinger Band suggests a short-term technical rebound in gold. A confirmed break above key resistance levels would validate the rebound scenario. Conversely, the bearish doji candle and persistent downward sloping moving averages advise caution, as trend reversal is not yet firmly established.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar includes important U.S. data releases at 16:00, including the January ISM Manufacturing PMI and its subindexes. The forecast anticipates an increase to 52.4 from the prior 51.8, which, if realized, could bolster USD strength and put near-term pressure on gold prices. No other significant events directly impacting XAUUSD are scheduled today, making the U.S. manufacturing data the primary focus for traders.

Resistance & Support

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