Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD exchange rate has experienced notable downward pressure. Starting from yesterday’s closing price of 1.16102, the pair weakened as strong US economic data revived demand for the US dollar, pushing EUR/USD below the 1.1600 level. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging energy prices have further heightened risk-aversion sentiment in the market.

Recent market news highlights that the EUR/USD decline has been driven by escalating Middle East conflict, divergence between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank monetary policies, and technical selling pressures. Meanwhile, cooling inflation in the Eurozone has raised doubts about ECB actions, adding to the currency’s strain. In contrast, resilient US economic data continues to bolster the dollar, weighing on the euro.

For the average investor, this volatility signifies a shift toward safer assets amid increased global uncertainty. The 1.1600 level stands as a critical psychological support, and without strong positive catalysts, the euro-dollar pair may struggle to stabilize in the short term. Investors should closely watch the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report as it could significantly influence the pair’s next moves.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD locked in a defined downtrend, unable to break above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Bollinger Bands are contracting, suggesting reduced volatility ahead. The MACD remains bearish with no signs of a reversal yet. The price action portrays persistent selling pressure pushing the currency pair closer to yearly lows.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days displays consolidation with a bearish bias around the 1.1600 level. Short-term moving averages cross downward, indicating ongoing selling momentum. Recent bearish engulfing candlesticks reinforce the potential for continuation of the downward move in the next 24 hours.

Technical Trend:  The overall trend is cautiously bearish, with the pair in a weak consolidation phase prone to further downside.

Technically, EURUSD is showing persistent bearish momentum with MACD trending down and RSI nearing oversold territory, though no clear reversal patterns are apparent yet. The formation of a descending flag pattern suggests possible continuation of the sell-off if the 1.1578 support breaks decisively. The recent bearish engulfing candle signals sustained short-term selling pressure; watch if the price can hold above this key support to avoid further declines.

Today, the Eurozone will release its final Q4 GDP figures, expected to remain steady at 0.3% q/q. Any underperformance could add pressure to the euro. Additionally, the US will publish critical economic data at 14:30 GMT+1, including Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Strong US data tends to strengthen the US dollar and push EURUSD lower, while weaker data may ease downside pressure and support euro gains.

Resistance & Support

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