Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair has remained under pressure, trading around 1.1430, slightly below yesterday’s closing price of 1.1455. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated market sentiment, weighing heavily on the euro. With surging oil prices, Europe—being one of the world’s largest energy importers—faces rising costs which have pressured the euro, while the US dollar has strengthened as a safe-haven currency, hitting new highs for 2026.

According to reports from “EUR/USD remains on the defensive below 1.1450 on Middle East tensions,” the ongoing conflict has triggered risk-off sentiment, boosting demand for the dollar and causing the euro to give back earlier gains. MUFG highlighted that “Operation ‘Epic Fury'” caused a sharp energy price shock that bolstered the US dollar. This environment makes the market more volatile, signaling to average investors that euro-dollar swings could intensify, underlining the need for careful risk management.

In summary, market volatility is driven by geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices, confining EUR/USD movements within the 1.14 to 1.15 range. Looking ahead, the upcoming Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy decisions are poised to be crucial in steering the pair’s direction. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic updates and geopolitical developments to adapt their strategies to the heightened foreign exchange market volatility.

Daily Chart

Daily chart analysis reveals a strong downtrend with EURUSD breaking below both the 50-day (around 1.17614) and 200-day moving averages (around 1.16844), forming a death cross that signals sustained selling pressure. The Bollinger Bands have widened following a squeeze, with prices moving down along the middle band. MACD histogram shrinking suggests weakening downward momentum but the overall trend remains bearish.

1H Chart

Hourly chart shows increased volatility over the past 3-5 days with prices repeatedly testing support between 1.1419 and 1.1455. Short-term moving averages (e.g., 12 and 26 EMA) have crossed bearish, MACD histogram turned negative, while prices touched the lower Bollinger Band and slightly rebounded, indicating short-term consolidation within a weak trend awaiting directional confirmation.

Technical Trend:  Current trend is a weak consolidation with bearish bias from both technical and fundamental perspectives.

Technically, EURUSD has formed a clear death cross on the daily chart with expanding Bollinger Bands signaling persistent downside pressure. Hourly analysis shows short-term bottoming attempts but lacks reversal confirmation. Key resistance near 1.1460 must be cleared to shift bias. Traders should watch geopolitical developments and upcoming US data closely for momentum shifts and trade opportunities.

Today’s economic calendar features Chinese and Polish industrial production, inflation, and trade data, which have minimal direct impact on EURUSD. US industrial production and capacity utilization data at 14:15 GMT+1 could influence USD strength; robust numbers may boost the dollar and pressure euro, while weaker results might offer slight euro relief. No significant immediate events expected to cause major EURUSD moves today.

Resistance & Support

The above financial market data, quotes, charts, statistics, exchange rates, news, research, analysis, buy or sell ratings, financial education, and other information are for reference only. Before making any trades based on this information, you should consult independent professional advice to verify pricing data or obtain more detailed market information. 1uptick.com should not be regarded as soliciting any subscriber or visitor to execute any trade. You are solely responsible for all of your own trading decisions.