Over the past 24 to 48 hours, gold (XAUUSD) has experienced significant price volatility, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On March 4, 2026, gold closed at $5,153.245, slightly up from the previous day’s $5,088.835, reflecting sustained demand for safe-haven assets.

Recent market news highlights that the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a surge in safe-haven buying, pushing gold prices close to $5,400. However, a stronger US dollar and rising US bond yields caused a mild pullback this week, though analysts affirm that gold’s fundamentals remain intact.

For average investors, the recent gold price action resembles seeking shelter during an international political storm. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East raise risk awareness, driving buyers into traditional safe havens like gold, while the dollar’s strength and interest rate shifts impose selling pressure, causing short-term price swings. Overall, the gold market continues to serve as a critical barometer of global uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

Daily Chart

The XAUUSD daily chart reveals a strong rebound from late February, with gold trending upwards but recently encountering significant resistance near $5380. Multiple attempts to break this level resulted in upper shadow candlesticks, signaling increased selling pressure. The 20-day moving average remains below the price, indicating medium-term bullish bias, while Bollinger Bands expanding suggests heightened volatility. The MACD indicator hovers near zero with histogram fluctuations, indicating a potential consolidation or reversal phase. Overall, the daily chart points to a market digesting recent gains and awaiting clearer confirmation for the next move.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past five days shows XAUUSD falling sharply from a high near $5380 on March 1 to around $5100 by March 4, marking a solid short-term downtrend. A bearish crossover between the 20 and 50-hour moving averages confirms selling momentum. Price is near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating possible oversold conditions. The MACD remains negative with expanding bearish momentum, and a recent bearish engulfing candlestick pattern signals strong near-term downside pressure. However, the area around $5150 acts as a key support zone that could trigger a rebound if it holds.

Technical Trend:  XAUUSD is currently in a cautiously consolidating phase with short-term corrective volatility, while maintaining a medium-term bullish bias overall.

Technically, gold faces a decisive resistance zone near $5380, forming a potential descending triangle pattern. A breakout above this level could ignite a new bullish wave. The recent bearish engulfing pattern on the 60-minute chart highlights increased selling pressure, signaling short-term caution. However, the medium-term daily trend remains upward-biased. Key indicators such as the MACD narrowing and RSI approaching oversold territory suggest a possible momentum shift soon. Traders should closely watch support around $5150 for potential rebound opportunities and confirmation of trend continuation.

Today’s economic calendar in GMT+1 features Australia’s Q4 GDP figures beating expectations, which may support its currency but have limited direct impact on gold. China’s mixed PMI data signals a slight slowdown in manufacturing and services, potentially dampening commodity demand modestly. Japan’s consumer confidence slightly exceeds forecasts but is unlikely to significantly affect gold. The US ADP employment report, observed today, could influence the USD; better-than-expected data would strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices downwards. Overall, there are no major direct economic events today expected to drastically alter XAUUSD’s price, with geopolitical factors continuing to dominate market sentiment.

Resistance & Support

The above financial market data, quotes, charts, statistics, exchange rates, news, research, analysis, buy or sell ratings, financial education, and other information are for reference only. Before making any trades based on this information, you should consult independent professional advice to verify pricing data or obtain more detailed market information. 1uptick.com should not be regarded as soliciting any subscriber or visitor to execute any trade. You are solely responsible for all of your own trading decisions.