Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair exhibited modest volatility, with the price dipping slightly below yesterday’s close of 1.1727 to a low near 1.1720 before stabilizing around 1.1740. This movement chiefly stemmed from escalated tensions in the Middle East, specifically around the Strait of Hormuz, which heightened global safe haven demand and bolstered the US dollar.

As reported in “US Dollar Price Forecast: Safe Haven Demand Rises on Iran Tensions – GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook Today,” the intensification of Iran-related tensions has prompted capital flows into traditional safe havens like the US dollar, leading to a stronger dollar in recent sessions. Although the Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates near 98, the safe haven bid has exerted short-term pressure on EUR/USD, weighing on the euro. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank faces mounting inflation concerns driven by rising energy prices coupled with Eurozone growth slipping to only 0.1%, increasing uncertainty around the euro’s outlook.

For the average investor, this means recent market moves have been strongly influenced by geopolitical risks, resulting in heightened exchange rate volatility. With energy prices unlikely to ease soon, the euro remains pressured, while the dollar maintains strength as the go-to safe asset. Investors should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and central bank signals to navigate potential market turbulence prudently.

Daily Chart

The EURUSD daily chart shows a consolidating uptrend since the start of the year, with prices trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages indicating ongoing medium-term bullish bias. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signaling reduced volatility. Recently, the price touched the upper band but faced resistance near 1.1750 and pulled back. MACD histogram remains positive, suggesting momentum is waning but still bullish. The daily price action reflects a strengthening setup but stalled near critical resistance, hinting at potential short-term correction.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, EURUSD has traded sideways within 1.1720-1.1750 for the last 3-5 days. Short and long-term EMAs are intertwined, MACD slopes flatten, and Bollinger Bands contract—all signs of consolidation. A symmetrical triangle pattern is forming, suggesting a breakout is imminent. The latest candlestick is a doji with long wicks, reflecting market indecision. The next 24 hours’ direction hinges on a decisive move from this consolidation zone.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD is currently in a cautiously consolidating sideways trend, awaiting a breakout near key price levels to trigger next directional move.

EURUSD technical outlook centers on medium-term moving average support and the ongoing symmetrical triangle pattern’s potential breakout. The MACD stays in positive territory but with flattening momentum, suggesting weakening strength without reversal yet. The recent doji candlestick indicates indecision, making the upcoming breakout from the triangle pattern pivotal. Volume remains stable. Traders should watch for volume confirmation alongside price breakout to validate trend direction.

Today’s European economic calendar features multiple Manufacturing PMI releases expected to confirm economic slowdown in Eurozone. If actual readings fall short of forecasts, the euro may weaken further, pressuring EURUSD lower. Later, US durable goods and factory orders data will be released; stronger results could bolster the USD and weigh on EURUSD. Overall, no major event directly tied to EURUSD today, but the European PMIs should be monitored closely as possible catalysts for intraday moves.

Resistance & Support

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