After the last Federal Reserve meeting, several members notably removed the term “easing” from the statement. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted from two cuts throughout the year at the start to over 60% probability of rates remaining unchanged through 2026.

> Last week, US CPI and PPI inflation data both rebounded.
> Tariffs introduced last year (medium term) and high oil prices following US/Iran conflict (short term) are gradually heating up US inflation.
> The incoming Fed Chair expressed a cautious stance at the April banking committee hearing, advocating for balance sheet reduction, making a weaker dollar unlikely.

US medium and long-term bond yields surged last Friday, with the 30-year yield at 5.15%. An uptrend has formed (2), and as long as the resistance zone between 100-100.5 (1) is broken, the target will be 101.80 (3).

Consideration:
Higher oil prices mean more profits for oil-exporting countries/companies. Major US oil producers (like ExxonMobil, Chevron) are Republican-Trump supporters. From Trump’s interest perspective, is a permanent closure of the Strait of Hormuz the best scenario?