Over the past 24 to 48 hours, gold (XAUUSD) experienced notable volatility, closing yesterday at $4049.43, down from the previous day’s highs. The market was driven by Brent crude oil topping $100 and the US 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.707%, pushing September Fed rate hike odds up to 80%. These dynamics put downward pressure on gold prices.

Recent reports highlight that gold is in the early stages of a long-term bull market, supported by billionaire investor John Paulson’s bullish stance. The upcoming ECB and Fed meetings add layers of uncertainty and support to gold’s safe-haven demand. Despite short-term pressures, gold has managed to hold above $4100, though close monitoring of macroeconomic policy shifts remains essential.

For the average investor, when oil prices surge alongside rising interest rates, gold’s safe-haven appeal competes against the lure of higher-yield assets, often causing pressure on gold prices. Understanding these market forces helps investors fine-tune their portfolio strategies accordingly.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, XAUUSD has been retreating from the 4200 resistance, entering a corrective phase with solid support near 4027. The 200-day moving average slopes gently upwards, supporting the long-term uptrend. Bollinger Bands have widened with price dipping below the mid-band, approaching the lower band support. The MACD has toggled from bearish to tentative bullish signals but lacks strong confirmation. Overall, the daily picture suggests short-term correction within a broader upward structure. Traders should monitor key daily support and resistance levels closely.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the last 3-5 days shows XAUUSD forming a tightening range with higher lows and forming an ascending triangle pattern. Short-term moving averages intertwine, while Bollinger Bands narrow, signaling contraction before a potential breakout. MACD hovers around the zero line, indicating indecision but momentum divergence hints at a short-term bullish setup. A breakthrough above 4200 could trigger a fresh upward rally, while failure to clear resistance may prolong consolidation.

Technical Trend:  Currently, XAUUSD shows a cautiously bullish trend with signs of short-term consolidation before a possible breakout.

Technically, XAUUSD’s notable insight is the solid defense of the 4027 support on the daily, providing a springboard for short-term rebounds. The ascending triangle on the hourly chart, coupled with MACD divergence, marks a possible breakout scenario ahead. Recent candlestick patterns like hammer and engulfing indicate waning bearish momentum and buyers regrouping. Watching the 4200 resistance zone closely will be critical as a successful break could redefine the short-term trend upwards.

Today’s economic calendar includes Australia’s employment change and US weekly jobless claims data. Australia’s stronger-than-expected job additions at 76.3k, with stable unemployment at 4.4%, support the AUD and may influence USD performance marginally. The US jobless claims report due at 14:30 GMT+1 is forecasted at 212k, slightly above last week’s 208k. Better-than-expected claims may bolster USD strength, pressuring gold prices. There are no direct high-impact events specifically affecting XAUUSD today; thus, market focus will remain on technical signals and geopolitical developments.

Resistance & Support

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