Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the USD/JPY exchange rate has continued to come under pressure, closing yesterday at 153.504, down approximately 0.22% from the previous trading day. The dollar-yen pair fell from an intraday high of 153.974 to a low near 153.246, reflecting strong risk-off sentiment alongside persistent hawkish stances from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

According to recent market news, the US targeting Iranian oil tankers has heightened geopolitical tensions, which typically drives safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen. However, the yen’s rally is not solely due to external pressures. Crucially, the BoJ’s firm hawkish policy stance and active yen-buying intervention have intensified expectations of monetary tightening. The sharp break below the key 155 psychological level accelerated the drop towards the 153 area.

For the average investor, this yen strength mirrors increased global monetary policy divergence. The US continues with hawkish policies while the BoJ sends clear tightening signals, amplifying currency volatility. Investors holding USD or JPY assets should stay alert to uncertainties stemming from policy gaps and the market shocks caused by sudden geopolitical events.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows USDJPY declining continuously from a peak of 163.92 earlier this year, with recent acceleration pushing it below the 200-day moving average at 158.44 and the 50-day average at 160.35, indicating a shift from a medium-to-long term bullish trend to bearish. The Bollinger Bands have widened downward, signaling increased volatility, while the MACD has formed a death cross confirming loss of momentum. A descending wedge pattern has broken down in recent sessions, reinforcing bearish direction. Overall, the daily trend tilts strongly downward with critical support levels being tested.

1H Chart

In the last 3 to 5 days on the hourly chart, USDJPY’s decline is intensified, falling from around 156 to near 153.5. The short-term moving averages (5-hour) remain flat to downward with price consistently trading below, supported by negative MACD momentum. The Bollinger Bands approach the lower band, hinting at potential short-term technical bounce but without trend reversal. Recent large bearish candlesticks and engulfing patterns indicate continued selling pressure over the next 24 hours. Short-term traders should exercise caution and look for confirmation before entering.

Technical Trend:  USDJPY currently exhibits a strong bearish trend, classified as “Cautiously Bearish.” The selling pressure and momentum indicators confirm a downward trajectory in the near term.

Technically, USDJPY’s daily chart reveals a clear death cross and trend reversal bear signals. The pair is approaching critical support near 153; breaking below could accelerate the downside move. A descending triangle pattern is developing, showing expanding bearish control. Both daily and hourly MACD are deepening in negative territory, confirming weak momentum. The technical outlook points to significant selling pressure with a strategy favoring selling rallies or waiting for clearer signs before committing long positions.

There are no significant or directly relevant economic events scheduled today in the GMT+1 timezone that would impact USDJPY trading. Although Chinese CPI and PPI data showed slight upward surprises, these are unlikely to cause immediate fluctuations in the USDJPY pair. Both Japan and US central banks have been quiet regarding policy announcements, leaving market participants more focused on geopolitical developments and policy divergence. Thus, today’s economic calendar exerts minimal direct influence on USDJPY price action.

Resistance & Support

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