Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) has moved modestly higher from yesterday’s closing price of 0.70572, reaching a high near 0.70756. Market sentiment has been shaped by a mix of factors including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent rate hike and ongoing uncertainty around global trade policies.

Specifically, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% earlier this month to curb inflation and respond to strong domestic demand, reinforcing the Australian dollar’s fundamental strength. However, investors remain cautious about US trade policy shifts, especially after the US Supreme Court overturned parts of Trump-era tariffs, injecting uncertainty into future trade measures and causing some volatility in AUD/USD.

Furthermore, Standard Chartered recently upgraded its AUD forecast, projecting the pair to reach 0.72 over the next three months and 0.75 within 12 months, signaling growing confidence in Australia’s economic outlook. Continued robust Australian employment data and a steady labor market have also lent support to the currency.

For the average investor, the recent market action suggests the Aussie is benefiting from several macroeconomic tailwinds but remains vulnerable to waves from potential trade policy changes. In simple terms, AUD/USD is like a ship navigating steadily through choppy waters—powered forward by strong fundamentals but cautious of looming storms.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows AUDUSD in a steady uptrend from recent lows, with price breaking above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling strong bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating higher volatility, with price holding above the middle band, affirming a medium to long-term bullish trend. The MACD has recently formed a bullish crossover, strengthening momentum from approximately the 0.695 level to the current close near 0.70572, indicating sustained buying interest.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, AUDUSD has tested the 0.7075 resistance multiple times over the past 3-5 days, resulting in short-term consolidation. Price remains close to the middle Bollinger Band, with contracting volatility. The MACD hovers above zero without significant divergence, suggesting stable momentum. The recent appearance of a hanging man candlestick signals a potential short-term pullback or sideways correction, though the overall bias remains bullish.

Technical Trend:  Cautiously Bullish

Technically, AUDUSD presents a bullish golden cross and aligned moving averages, indicating a high-probability buying environment in the near term. The daily Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting increased price volatility, so traders should remain alert for possible sharp pullbacks following rapid rallies. The hanging man candlestick on the hourly chart combined with steady MACD progress suggests a likely short-term correction before continuation of the bullish trend.

Today’s economic calendar shows no major events that are directly expected to impact AUDUSD significantly. Key announcements from Australia and the US are limited. However, traders should watch later US data on consumer confidence and manufacturing, as better-than-expected results could strengthen the USD and pressure AUDUSD, while weaker figures may favor the Aussie dollar.

Resistance & Support

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