Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair has steadied around the 1.1690 mark during Asian hours, slightly up from yesterday’s close of 1.16856, but overall trading has been cautious with limited volatility. Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened risk aversion, boosting the US Dollar Index (DXY) back to 98.65 and putting pressure on the euro.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s composite PMI for April fell from 50.7 in March to 48.6, signaling a contraction in economic activity, particularly due to weakness in the services sector. Combined with a strong dollar and escalating geopolitical uncertainties, market confidence in the euro has weakened considerably. This has kept EUR/USD capped below the 1.1700 threshold, reflecting a bearish tilt.

For the average investor, this means that the EUR/USD is currently facing volatility amid ongoing geopolitical risks and weakening Eurozone fundamentals. The safe-haven demand favors the US dollar, pressuring the euro and limiting upward momentum. Investors should remain cautious and monitor upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments closely.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD in a gradual downtrend since early 2026, repeatedly encountering resistance near 1.1730. The price has been hovering near the 200-day moving average around 1.168 level, suggesting the bearish momentum continues. Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating reduced volatility, while the MACD remains in negative territory with the signal line below zero, confirming bearish medium-term momentum. The overall daily trend remains vulnerable to a further breakdown below key support zones.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the last 3-5 days illustrates short-term consolidation between 1.165 and 1.170. The 50-hour moving average recently crossed below the 100-hour, highlighting a bearish bias. Bollinger Bands show mild expansion, indicating potential volatility spikes. Notably, a bullish divergence on MACD has emerged, accompanied by a recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, suggesting a possible short-term rebound within the next 24 hours if buying volume supports the move.

Technical Trend:  The current trend for EURUSD is cautiously bearish with short-term sideways volatility and an overall downward bias.

Technically, EURUSD faces critical support around 1.1680, which acts as a key level to watch for intraday rebounds. The MACD remains negative signaling prevailing bearish momentum; however, the recent bullish engulfing pattern on the hourly chart suggests potential short-term bounce. A break above immediate resistance at 1.1730 may indicate a shift towards bullish sentiment, whereas a fall below 1.1650 could reinforce the downside trend. Traders should monitor volume and dollar index movements for prospective high-probability trade setups.

Today’s economic calendar shows no major events directly impacting EURUSD. Important releases include Japan’s CPI and core CPI at 01:30 GMT+1, which may indirectly affect currency market sentiment but have limited immediate influence on EURUSD. Later, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index at 10:00 GMT+1 could weigh on euro sentiment if results disappoint. Otherwise, geopolitical factors and US dollar dynamics remain dominant drivers for EURUSD short-term moves.

Resistance & Support

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