Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the AUD/USD pair experienced notable volatility and upward momentum, following yesterday’s closing price of 0.716. The market was propelled by multiple factors including optimism around US-Iran peace talks which reduced the dollar’s traditional safe-haven appeal and fueled a swift rally in the Australian dollar.

Stronger-than-expected Chinese inflation figures bolstered expectations for Australian exports, while a persistently tight Australian labor market reinforced the prospects of further RBA rate hikes. The recent RBA policy signals suggest a continued hawkish stance, further supporting the Aussie’s upward momentum.

However, shifting Fed policy expectations introduced some dollar strength, tempering the Aussie’s gains. Price action saw AUD/USD fluctuate between 0.7060 and 0.71875 as markets balanced risk optimism with caution. Investors should closely watch developments in US-Iran negotiations and global risk sentiment, as these will be key drivers. Overall, recent market news has underpinned the Aussie’s robust performance against the US dollar, highlighting the complex interplay of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors shaping currency moves.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a clear bullish trend with AUDUSD trading above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, forming a golden cross that signals a positive long-term outlook. Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating increased volatility. The MACD remains in bullish territory with expanding histogram bars, underscoring strong buying momentum. This technical setup suggests continued upward price action, targeting resistance around 0.71875.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart covering the past 3-5 days, AUDUSD bounced from lows near 0.705, successfully breaking above the 21 EMA and 50 EMA. The MACD has crossed bullishly, and the RSI sits near mid-to-high levels, indicating robust short-term momentum without signs of overextension yet. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern suggests further upside in the next 24 hours, though proximity to the upper Bollinger Band warns of possible short-term pullback.

Technical Trend:  Current trend direction: Strong bullish momentum with steady uptrend

Key technical insights include the golden cross on the daily chart confirming a bullish trend and a bullish MACD crossover on the hourly timeframe signaling short-term buying strength. The recent bullish engulfing pattern supports further upward movement in the immediate term, with caution due to proximity to the upper Bollinger Band which may trigger a pullback. Fundamental sentiment improving from easing geopolitical tensions provides additional support to the bullish case.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar shows no major direct data expected to impact AUDUSD. However, remarks from multiple FOMC members later in the US session could provide hints on Federal Reserve’s stance and USD momentum. Hawkish tones might strengthen the dollar and pressure AUDUSD lower, while dovish comments could boost the Aussie. Overall, the FOMC speeches represent the main event to watch for potential price swings.

Resistance & Support

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