Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair has experienced fluctuating movements, closing near 1.1780, with only a slight change from yesterday’s close of 1.1779. The recent market dynamics have been strongly influenced by news of US-Iran ceasefire talks, which have gradually boosted market confidence, leading to a temporary weakening of the US dollar and providing some support for the euro.

As tensions ease between the US and Iran, risk appetite has improved, pushing the euro-dollar pair to test the 1.1800 level. However, volatility in oil prices continues to add uncertainty to the market, putting pressure on the euro’s gains, reflecting a cautious stance among investors regarding the evolving Middle East situation.

For the average investor, this scenario resembles a market caught between risk-off and risk-on moods. The easing geopolitical risks have weakened the dollar and supported the euro in the short term, but macro factors like oil remain a reminder of ongoing market uncertainty, underscoring the need for flexible and vigilant investment approaches.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, EURUSD has been in a long-term uptrend, recently pulling back to test support near the 1.1750-1.1800 area where multiple moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day MAs, converge as support. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling reduced volatility. The MACD histogram is shrinking, with the MACD line approaching the signal line, indicating possible short-term momentum loss. Traders should watch for a MACD crossover for further directional clues.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the last 3-5 days shows heightened volatility, with prices fluctuating between 1.1770 and 1.1830. Resistance at the 200-hour moving average capped gains, while Bollinger Bands expanding imply growing uncertainty. MACD recently exhibited a bullish divergence, suggesting a potential rebound. The most notable candlestick is a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating a possible upward move in the next 24 hours amid overall geopolitical risk.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is cautiously bullish with sideways consolidation and increased volatility.

Technical indicators suggest EURUSD is at a critical juncture between bulls and bears. The MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, and key moving averages provide solid support, reinforcing bullish sentiment. However, resistance near 1.1800 remains a hurdle. Traders should eye short-term rebound setups combined with disciplined risk management given the high impact of geopolitical developments.

Today, the Eurozone releases several economic indicators, including trade balance and current account data at 10:00 GMT+1, which are closely watched. Better-than-expected results could support the Euro, while weaker figures may press EURUSD lower. In the US, multiple FOMC members’ speeches scheduled later might influence Dollar sentiment but are not expected to cause direct immediate volatility in EURUSD.

Resistance & Support

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