Over the past 24 to 48 hours, USD/CAD has continued its six-day slide, slightly dipping below yesterday’s closing price of 1.36477. The U.S. dollar has softened amid a mix of factors, notably due to Canada’s inflation undershooting expectations, which provided support to the Canadian dollar and pressured the USD/CAD rate downward.

Recent geopolitical volatility, especially developments around the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, have amplified fluctuations in both the USD and CAD. Heightened risk sentiment has bolstered oil prices, which in turn supports the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar, adding downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

For the average investor, the dollar’s recent softness paired with a stronger Canadian dollar—driven by subdued Canadian inflation and oil price rebounds—means short-term gains from holding USD assets may be limited. The current dynamic highlights the intertwined impacts of global economic and political risks on currency moves, emphasizing the importance for investors to monitor energy markets and geopolitical updates closely to optimize their forex exposure.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals USDCAD in a pronounced downtrend since its yearly peak, fluctuating mainly between 1.36 and 1.38. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages point downward, confirming bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show contraction but remain below the midline, signaling sustained pressure with reduced volatility. The MACD sits in negative territory with declining histogram bars, suggesting no immediate trend reversal.

1H Chart

Hourly price action over the past five days demonstrates repeated support tests with failed attempts to break above 1.37. Short-term moving averages are mixed, indicating consolidative price behavior within a bearish bias. The Bollinger Bands skew lower, reinforcing sellers’ grip. Recently formed MACD bearish crosses increase near-term downside risks. Higher volumes clustered near bounce levels show intense battle between bulls and bears but overall tone remains bearish.

Technical Trend:  USDCAD is currently in a cautiously bearish phase, exhibiting a weak consolidative trend with potential for downside breakout.

Technically, USDCAD shows multiple bearish signals: the daily MACD remains in negative territory indicating strong downward momentum, and the critical 1.3600 support level is under pressure—breaking below it could signal a fresh leg down. On the hourly chart, a bearish MACD crossover and proximity to the lower Bollinger Band add short-term downside weight. Recent candlesticks present multiple doji and long lower shadows, reflecting indecision and support attempts. Traders should closely monitor price and volume action near 1.3600 for possible reversal or breakdown opportunities.

Today’s economic calendar does not feature any major events directly impacting USDCAD. The key highlight is the upcoming US Retail Sales report at 14:30 GMT+1, which could influence USD strength. A better-than-expected reading may lend support to the dollar and slow USDCAD’s decline, while a weaker print could accelerate the downside. Other events from New Zealand and Europe hold minimal immediate relevance to this pair.

Resistance & Support

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