Over the past 24 to 48 hours, EUR/USD has remained under pressure from a firm US Dollar, with the rate dipping from yesterday’s closing price of 1.16367 to around 1.15906, marking a decline of roughly 0.27%. The progress in talks between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, paired with a steady ceasefire in the Middle East, pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a six-week high of 99.28, reinforcing the greenback’s strength in the FX market.

The dollar’s resilience is fueled by expectations of a robust US economic recovery and ongoing Federal Reserve rate hike bets, which have weighed on the euro. This led to a breakout below a multi-week ascending trendline for EUR/USD, signaling headwinds ahead. For the everyday investor, this means that while geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, the dollar’s safe-haven appeal is suppressing the euro in the near term. The overall market favors a stronger dollar, making it essential to watch Fed policy updates and global geopolitical events for their continued impact on this currency pair.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a clear downward trajectory since early this year when EURUSD peaked near 1.20831. The pair has drifted lower, forming a multi-week descending channel. Price recently found support near 1.16 but met stiff resistance between 1.1640 and 1.1655. The 20- and 50-day moving averages slope downward, signifying bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands are tightening, suggesting reduced volatility and a potential breakout. The MACD remains negative without a bullish crossover, reinforcing the bearish trend bias.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past five days reveals a choppy price action between roughly 1.1580 and 1.1645. The 50-period moving average near 1.1610 provides dynamic support. Every test toward the 1.1645 resistance zone has seen sellers step in. Recently, the MACD generated a bearish crossover, indicating increased selling pressure. The narrow Bollinger Bands reflect lower short-term volatility, requiring caution for a potential directional breakout.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is cautiously bearish, reflecting ongoing dollar strength with some euro attempts at recovery, resulting in a volatile sideways price structure.

Technically, EURUSD remains in a protracted downtrend searching for a short-term bottom. A successful break above the 1.1640-1.1655 resistance zone could trigger a rebound, but bearish signals from the MACD crossover and moving averages imply continued downside risk. Watch for a possible breakdown below the 50-period moving average on the hourly chart which could accelerate the correction.

There are no significant or direct economic events scheduled today that will impact EURUSD. Traders should remain attentive to upcoming US and Eurozone central bank meetings which will have a more pronounced effect on this pair.

Resistance & Support

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