Over the past 24 to 48 hours, gold prices (XAUUSD) have shown a notable retreat, closing yesterday at $4015.14. The market has been driven by increasing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate policy, with investors growing concerned about further rate hikes, which has dampened demand for gold.

Recent market news highlights that gold is under pressure due to expectations of multiple Fed rate hikes this year. Deutsche Bank has sharply cut its gold price forecasts, warning that if the Fed hikes rates 3 to 4 more times, gold could drop towards $3,800. While some rebound was seen following inflation data, persistent inflation concerns combined with a strong dollar have fueled bearish sentiment.

In simpler terms, investors worry that rising borrowing costs will reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, a strong US dollar weakens the demand for gold priced in dollars. As a result, many investors are trimming gold holdings, opting to wait for clearer signals on interest rate direction before increasing positions again.

For those tracking the gold market, paying close attention to Fed rate decisions and economic data releases in the coming days will be crucial as these remain the primary drivers for gold’s price trajectory.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, XAUUSD has been in a downtrend over recent weeks, falling from approximately $4300. A clear descending channel is visible. The moving averages show a bearish crossover (death cross), reinforcing the negative momentum. Bollinger Bands have contracted with price hovering around the mid-band, while the MACD histogram extends deeper into negative territory, signaling sustained weakness. Overall, the daily technicals suggest a corrective phase with ongoing downward pressure until fresh directional cues emerge.

1H Chart

The hourly chart reveals a mostly bearish trend over the last 3-5 days, with price consolidating near $4000, forming a temporary support area. Short-term moving averages lack clear support, and the MACD is showing minor bullish divergence, hinting at a possible short-term rebound. Bollinger Bands tightening suggest increasing volatility. The recent hammer candlestick with a long lower shadow indicates potential for a bounce, though confirmation above the $4000 level is needed to validate strength.

Technical Trend:  XAUUSD is currently showing a cautiously bearish trend with intermittent sideways consolidation and short-lived bounces, driven by cautious market sentiment and Fed policy uncertainty.

Technical insights indicate sustained short-term bearish pressure from the daily chart’s death cross and MACD negative expansion. The hourly hammer candlestick pattern suggests a near-term pullback possibility but must break above $4000 to confirm upward momentum. The market remains highly sensitive to Fed rate expectations, which serve as the primary driver of gold demand. Volume contraction hints at low conviction in either direction. Traders should watch volume combined with price action for reliable trade setups.

Today’s economic calendar in GMT+1 highlights the Japanese May Retail Sales data (01:50) as the most relevant event affecting XAUUSD. The stronger-than-expected reading may briefly bolster the USD, exerting downward pressure on gold. Other releases from the Eurozone and UK focus on inflation and economic sentiment but have a less direct impact on gold. No major US economic data is scheduled today, implying a limited immediate effect on XAUUSD price from macro news. Attention should remain on interest rate signals for directional cues.

Resistance & Support

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