Over the past 24 to 48 hours, EUR/USD hovered near yesterday’s closing price of 1.1629, reflecting a balanced tug-of-war between the US dollar and the euro. Despite the US Dollar Index (DXY) holding firm around 99.06, the ceasefire news from the Middle East shifted risk sentiment, providing some support to the euro. The market has priced in the extended US-Iran truce lasting over eight weeks, helping EUR/USD stabilize around the 1.1649 level.

Meanwhile, on the global stage, the euro’s international use saw a slight rise in 2025 but remains far behind the dominant dollar, highlighting the euro’s uphill battle to expand its global role. For investors, this means the dollar retains its edge in the near term, though easing geopolitical risks could pave the way for a euro rebound and partial recovery.

In summary, the latest market news directly influenced recent price action. The Middle East ceasefire alleviated safe-haven demand and boosted market confidence, providing a floor for the euro. For average investors, this signals a shift from crisis-driven volatility toward calmer trading conditions, with forex prices likely to adjust alongside evolving geopolitical developments. Staying informed on these updates will be key to seizing timely trading opportunities.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD drifting downward from its yearly high near 1.20831, currently trading slightly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.16896 and 1.16744 respectively, indicating medium to long-term bearish pressure. Bollinger Bands have contracted, pointing to reduced volatility and a potential consolidation phase. The MACD suggests weakening bearish momentum with signs of an early bullish reversal, warranting attention to confirm any trend change.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days depicts a clear rebound in EURUSD, with price breaking above the 10 and 20-period moving averages. The MACD line has formed a bullish crossover, while price consolidates near the middle Bollinger Band, showing increasing short-term bullish momentum. A flag consolidation pattern has started to break toward the upper boundary, where a breakout above 1.1660 would confirm continuation of the near-term uptrend. Volume trends should be watched to validate momentum strength.

Technical Trend:  The current EURUSD trend is cautiously bullish with a sideways consolidation phase featuring signs of a potential near-term rebound. Traders should await breakout confirmation to establish directional confidence.

Technical insights reveal a bullish MACD crossover and hourly price breaking above moving averages signaling positive momentum shift. Meanwhile, daily Bollinger Band constriction suggests volatility compression preceding a possible breakout. The developing flag pattern provides a setup for traders to watch for confirmation of an upward move, particularly with volume and momentum indicators supporting the case.

Today’s economic highlights include multiple Eurozone services PMI releases from Germany (09:55), France (09:50), the broader Eurozone (10:00), and the UK (10:30). Forecasts suggest slight declines compared to previous figures, potentially weighing on EURUSD. Subsequently, key US data such as the ADP employment report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index arrive in the evening (21:00 HKT), influencing USD strength and in turn EURUSD price action. No single event is expected to cause significant disruption, but combined, these data points will guide market sentiment and directional bias.

Resistance & Support

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