Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) continued its downward trend, closing yesterday at 0.69391, slightly up from the previous day’s 0.69195 but still reflecting overall weakness. During this period, the AUD faced dual pressures from economic data releases and market sentiment, pushing it to an 11-week low and signaling cautious investor sentiment on Australia’s economic outlook.

Following a brutal June decline, market focus has now shifted toward the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes and the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, both seen as key events that could drive near-term volatility. Mixed readings from Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) further heightened uncertainty, weighing on the AUD as traders closely watch for clues on the RBA’s future monetary policy steps.

For the average investor, this scenario resembles watching the weather before a storm — where any small change could influence decisions and price movements. The current drag on the AUD reflects a global preference for the US dollar and insufficient confidence-boosting economic data from Australia, shaping the recent volatility pattern in the AUD/USD pair.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a clear downtrend from the year’s high near 0.7277, with AUDUSD breaking below the 50-day moving average (0.7097) in mid-June and testing support at the 200-day moving average (0.6855). Bollinger Bands have contracted, indicating a possible increase in volatility ahead. The MACD remains below zero with widening negative divergence, signaling sustained bearish momentum. Resistance levels cluster around 0.71 and 0.7185, with the overall longer-term outlook showing corrective consolidation within a bearish context.

1H Chart

On the 5-day hourly chart, price action has oscillated between 0.69 and 0.695, stabilizing near the 20-hour moving average after a sharp decline. A potential bullish MACD crossover is forming alongside a rising RSI from neutral territory, signaling short-term buying pressure accumulation. Bollinger Bands are tightening but volume and momentum indicators hint at a possible near-term bounce, with critical resistance around 0.695 to 0.698. A break above this range could open the path for higher gains.

Technical Trend:  Short-term trend shows cautious consolidation with bearish bias amid ongoing battle between bulls and bears.

Technically, AUDUSD is finding support near the 200-day moving average. If price holds and the MACD confirms a bullish crossover, a short-term rebound is likely. Key to watch are volume trends and RSI moving away from oversold levels. A break above the 20-day moving average resistance could resume the bullish momentum, while a fall below 0.6855 support would reinforce bearish dominance.

There are no significant or directly relevant economic events scheduled today that would impact AUDUSD in the short term. Traders should focus on the forthcoming Australian CPI and US NFP reports, both of which hold considerable sway over future price volatility.

Resistance & Support

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