Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) has shown a steady upward trend, with the latest closing price hovering around 0.6940, slightly up from yesterday’s close of 0.69394. This rise is largely attributed to a softer US Dollar and fading fears of aggressive Fed rate hikes, boosting demand for the Aussie.

Market focus recently shifted to softer-than-expected US jobs data and dovish commentary from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. These factors significantly eased concerns over further aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the US Dollar weakened, providing upward momentum for the Australian Dollar priced in USD.

For the average investor, this paints a clear picture: when the US economy slows down, particularly with weaker employment numbers, the US Dollar tends to lose some of its appeal. Meanwhile, the Australian economy remains relatively stable, with markets also eyeing upcoming inflation data, making the Aussie one of the currencies benefiting in the short term.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals that AUDUSD has been on a gradual uptrend since the start of the year, breaking above the 200-day moving average (0.68612) and flirting near the 50-day MA (0.70834). Recent price action shows consolidation around 0.6940 with narrowing Bollinger Bands signaling reduced volatility. The MACD remains above zero, indicating sustained bullish momentum, but the shrinking histogram hints at a possible weakening of trend strength. Overall, the daily trend remains bullish but a pullback risk is present.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days shows AUDUSD oscillating between 0.6910 and 0.6950, forming a small flag pattern with multiple upper wicks signaling short-term resistance. The 20 EMA has begun sloping upwards, providing support, however, the RSI is in overbought territory suggesting potential profit-taking soon. No MACD bearish crossover yet, but bearish divergence is a red flag to watch.

Technical Trend:  Currently, the trend is cautiously bullish with short-term volatile sideways action.

Technically, AUDUSD is in a daily bullish trend but short-term overbought conditions are emerging. MACD momentum is fading and RSI signals overextension. The hourly chart’s flag pattern and upper wicks suggest a possible near-term pullback. Watch 0.6900 as a critical support level, since a break below it may accelerate downside correction.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar has no Australia or US data directly impacting AUDUSD. However, the US Weekly Jobless Claims at 14:30 could influence USD strength; weaker claims could further weigh on the dollar, indirectly supporting AUDUSD. Overall, barring surprises, price action today will largely depend on technicals and market sentiment.

Resistance & Support

Run a Live AUDUSD Analysis

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