Over the past 24 to 48 hours, EUR/USD exhibited relatively stable yet uncertain movement. Its closing price yesterday was around 1.15408, with trading ranging narrowly between 1.15396 and 1.15487, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid multiple influencing factors.

The market’s attention has been focused on upcoming US inflation data and expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Headlines highlight that despite widespread talk about the inflation report, there is no consistent edge in forecasting the data or market reactions, leading to short-term fluctuations in the US dollar and impacting the EUR/USD rate. Meanwhile, modest shifts in US interest rates have slowed dollar gains, providing some support for the euro.

Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, are supporting the US dollar and preventing the euro from breaking decisively above the resistance level near 1.1560. Overall, for average investors, this means EUR/USD is currently being influenced by both US policy outlook and international tensions, resulting in a consolidative trading pattern with cautious market sentiment awaiting clearer macroeconomic guidance.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, EURUSD has been moving within an ascending channel since early 2026, indicating a clear medium-to-long-term bullish trend. Recently, the price encountered resistance near the 200-day EMA at 1.16259, marking intense battle between bulls and bears. The narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest increasing volatility ahead, with a decisive break above the daily EMA resistance required to continue the upward momentum. The MACD remains above the zero line with positive momentum, though no significant strength gain is evident yet, implying potential consolidation between 1.15 and 1.16 for now.

1H Chart

The hourly chart reveals a choppy uptrend over the past 3-5 days, with EURUSD repeatedly testing the 1.1560 resistance but failing to establish a breakout. The 4-hour EMAs present a bullish alignment (shorter EMAs above longer ones), supporting a short-term bullish bias. A mild MACD divergence warns of a potential pullback. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern suggests buying defenses remain intact in the short-term, but without notable volume, false breakout risk remains elevated.

Technical Trend:  Cautiously Bullish

Technically, EURUSD shows multiple confirming signals. The daily chart maintains an upward channel structure, confirming bullish bias but faces stiff resistance at 1.1560. The hourly chart’s bullish EMA alignment combined with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern offers short-term support. MACD’s divergence indicates caution but no clear bearish signal yet. Traders should watch the 1.1528 short-term support and the 1.1560 resistance level, as their interplay will guide the next directional move.

Today’s economic calendar (GMT+1) highlights key European and US inflation releases. At 08:00, Germany’s finalized July Consumer Price Index and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices are expected at 2.8% YoY. Stronger-than-expected data could lend support to the euro. The US July CPI data, scheduled for 14:30, is widely anticipated to show a slight inflation slowdown, critically impacting the USD’s direction. A softer US inflation print might weaken the dollar and bolster EURUSD, whereas a stronger-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD and weigh on EURUSD.

Resistance & Support

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