Over the past 24 to 48 hours, GBP/USD has hovered around the key psychological level of 1.3500, with notable volatility as it closed around 1.3503, slightly down from yesterday’s close of 1.35105. This price action was shaped by a combination of factors, especially a global bond market selloff that boosted safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

Recent market news highlights that as traders await upcoming US labor data and services sector reports, expectations for further Fed rate hikes remain intact, supporting the dollar and putting downward pressure on the pound. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as unrest involving Iran, further enhance the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Although the pound briefly found support backed by the UK’s solid Q2 economic growth, it remains overshadowed by stronger dollar dynamics.

For typical investors, the recent dip in GBP/USD is less about deteriorating UK fundamentals and more a reflection of global market reactions to US monetary policy outlook and geopolitical risks. In this environment, investors should stay alert to upcoming US economic releases and geopolitical developments, as these will directly influence short-term GBP/USD swings.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a gradual pullback of GBPUSD from recent highs, consolidating around the critical 1.35 level. Price remains below the 20-day moving average indicating weakening medium-term momentum. Bollinger Bands have contracted, signaling reduced volatility, yet price has frequently touched the lower band, warning of potential downside risk. The MACD histogram is turning negative, suggesting bearish momentum is gaining slight strength. Watching for a possible MACD bearish crossover is essential as it could confirm further declines.

1H Chart

The hourly chart shows that GBPUSD has been fluctuating within a 1.349 to 1.355 range over the past 3-5 days. Price repeatedly tested support near 1.3495 without meaningful recovery, implying stronger short-term bearish sentiment. Moving averages are intertwined, reflecting sideways action. A hammer candlestick recently formed, indicating a potential short-term rebound; however, failure to break resistance at 1.3550 may sustain downward pressure in the near term.

Technical Trend:  Cautiously Bearish Consolidation

Technically, GBPUSD is testing crucial support levels with a deepening negative MACD histogram pointing to near-term downside risk. The convergence of the daily 20-day moving average and Bollinger Bands lower band reinforces this support zone. Meanwhile, the recent hammer formation on the hourly chart suggests potential for a short-term bounce, placing emphasis on the 1.3550 resistance as a pivotal level. Traders should closely monitor today’s UK and US economic releases to complement technical signals and make informed decisions.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar highlights key UK releases at 8:00 AM including July GDP and industrial production figures. GDP monthly growth is forecasted flat with a slight dip in quarterly growth, while industrial production shows a positive year-over-year trend. These data points could offer modest support for the Pound. However, market attention will shift later to the US at 2:30 PM with August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI reports. These US inflation figures are critical for assessing Federal Reserve rate expectations and will directly influence GBPUSD price action.

Resistance & Support

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