Over the past 24 to 48 hours, EUR/USD has shown notable volatility, moving up from yesterday’s closing price of 1.16406 and breaking slightly above the 1.1660 resistance level in recent trading, reaching its highest point in six weeks. This movement is primarily driven by shifting market expectations ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision scheduled for this Wednesday. Most analysts anticipate another 25 basis point rate cut, which has weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar, thereby boosting the euro against the dollar.

At the same time, positive economic data from the Eurozone, including a 1.4% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3, exceeding forecasts, along with an improvement in the eurozone construction PMI, have provided solid support to the euro. These fundamental factors, combined with dollar weakness, have propelled the EUR/USD higher. For investors, this scenario suggests that amid increasing market uncertainty, the euro is emerging as an attractive option due to economic resilience and the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD rebounding from its lows earlier this year, maintaining a gradual upward trend. The price remains above the 50-day moving average (~1.15915) and the 200-day moving average (~1.15721), highlighting a bullish medium-to-long term trend. Bollinger Bands indicate prices trading near the upper band with increased volatility, while the MACD histogram is broadening with sustained bullish momentum as the MACD lines rise. This overall setup confirms the persistent uptrend supporting the underlying bullish sentiment.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, examining recent 3-5 day price action, EURUSD broke out above the 1.1660 resistance following a consolidation phase. Short-term moving averages formed a bullish crossover, and Bollinger Bands widened reflecting increased volatility. The MACD remains above zero with the fast line crossing above the slow line, suggesting a strong short-term upward momentum. The hourly chart clearly shows a strengthening uptrend backed by improving momentum in the near term.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is decisively bullish with a clear strengthening of short and medium-term upward momentum.

Technical analysis reveals EURUSD is in an accelerating bullish phase, especially after breaking above the 1.1660 resistance forming a breakout from a flag pattern. The recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern strengthens the case for continued upside over the next 24 hours. The MACD golden cross and expanded Bollinger Bands indicate strong market momentum supporting further gains. Traders should watch for potential retracement or continuation setups to capitalize on this momentum-driven move.

There are no significant or directly relevant economic events in today’s GMT+1 calendar expected to impact EURUSD materially. Although Germany’s industrial production and the EU Sentix index are scheduled for release, these are unlikely to cause meaningful price swings. Japanese GDP data occurs before Asia market opens, thus having limited direct influence on EURUSD trading today.

Resistance & Support

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