In the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD exchange rate has seen a notable surge, rising approximately 0.69% in a day and rallying for the second straight day. Yesterday’s closing price hovered around 1.1724, with the pair today pushing slightly above that level toward 1.1725, showcasing the euro’s strong rebound amid a weakening US dollar.

The primary driver behind the euro’s recent strength stems from US President Trump’s latest tariff threats targeting the EU and other trade partners. These aggressive trade measures have directly pressured the dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slumped over 0.8%, hitting a two-week low, prompting investors to sell off dollar assets and rotate into euros and other safer or alternative currencies. The escalating Greenland crisis has further heightened market uncertainty surrounding US political and trade policies, deepening dollar weakness.

In relatable terms for the average investor, the US dollar is losing favor due to sudden geopolitical events and escalating trade tensions, creating an upward momentum opportunity for euros and similar currencies. For euro investors, this signals a positive near-term outlook, suggesting further gains as the dollar faces downward pressure. As market sentiment turns decisively positive, the euro’s price movements reflect growing confidence, warranting close attention to ongoing market news and policy developments.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a steady uptrend for EURUSD since the start of the year, with prices consistently trading above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, confirming bullish sentiment. Recently, price broke above the key 1.17 resistance level with Bollinger Bands expanding, signaling increased volatility. The MACD indicator recently formed a golden cross, reinforcing strong bullish momentum. Overall, the daily chart depicts a solid uptrend supported by expanding momentum and buyer conviction.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days shows EURUSD consolidating in a minor bullish flag pattern near the 1.1725 resistance area. Bollinger Bands are expanding with price hugging the upper band, indicating strong short-term buying pressure. MACD histogram growth and rising volume suggest an imminent breakout. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern further supports a near-term upward impulse, implying that buyers are poised to push prices higher within the next 24 hours.

Technical Trend:  Trend Direction: Decisively Bullish

Technically, EURUSD is testing the key resistance at 1.1725 with strong buy signals including a MACD golden cross and expanding Bollinger Bands. The recent bullish engulfing candlestick indicates further upside potential in the next 24 hours. The minor bullish flag pattern suggests a short consolidation before continuation, and combined with increasing volume, the momentum favors further upside. Traders should watch for a breakout above 1.1725 to confirm the next leg higher.

Today’s economic calendar includes no major data directly impacting EURUSD. However, UK inflation data releases early in the session may have a secondary influence on regional sentiment due to the correlated movements between GBP and EUR. Additionally, the European Central Bank Chairman is scheduled for two speeches, which could indirectly impact EURUSD depending on monetary policy tone. Overall, no significant direct economic event is expected to move EURUSD sharply today.

Resistance & Support

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