Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD currency pair has shown relative stability, closing around 1.15756 yesterday, slightly up from the previous day. Despite muted volatility, the US dollar is under multi-year structural pressure, becoming a key focus for forex traders in Hong Kong and worldwide.

Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Hormuz Strait region, have increased safe-haven demand for the US dollar, pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) to battle resistance near 100.63. In this context, the euro faces downside pressure as the dollar strengthens on the back of geopolitical risks.

Furthermore, soaring oil prices are providing additional support to the dollar, influencing the EUR/USD price action. Investors looking to capture market dynamics must keep an eye on the US 10-year Treasury yield, which remains the most critical driver of forex and bond market trends.

For the average investor, this scenario resembles a dollar showing short-term resilience amid a longer-term weakening trend, with global political and energy price uncertainties fueling the dollar’s intermittent strength. For EUR/USD, this means the pair may remain range-bound while the market digests evolving US and Middle East developments, warranting cautious trading and close monitoring of geopolitical news.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD in a longer-term sideways to slightly bearish trend with price oscillating in the 1.155 to 1.165 range recently. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages hover near 1.168, acting as resistance that the pair struggles to break above. Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating reduced volatility and an impending breakout. The MACD remains below zero, signaling bearish momentum, but hints at a possible reversal as momentum picks up. The pair is currently consolidating, needing a clear break above key moving averages to signal bullish resumption.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart over the past 3-5 days, EURUSD has been range-bound, repeatedly failing to break above the 1.158 to 1.16 resistance zone, forming a potential double top pattern. Moving averages (MA20 and MA50) are intertwined, and Bollinger Bands are contracting, suggesting indecision. MACD posted a minor bullish crossover, and RSI indicates a gradual recovery, signaling short-term rebound potential. Price currently sits above the middle Bollinger Band; a successful breach of 1.16 could trigger further upside, while a drop below 1.155 risks near-term pullback.

Technical Trend:  Trend Status: Consolidating with cautious bearish undertones but short-term upside momentum visible.

Technically, EURUSD is challenging important levels around 1.155 support and 1.16 resistance. Daily MACD and Bollinger Bands suggest a volatility contraction ahead, signaling an imminent breakout. The hourly double top and bullish MACD crossover highlight the significance of the 1.16 resistance. A break above this level could target 1.168 next, while failure might push the price down below 1.15. Traders should closely monitor volume and momentum indicators like RSI for confirming any directional shift and high-probability trade setups.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar features several key European manufacturing PMIs, including forecasts for the Eurozone and Germany showing slight improvements, which are crucial for EURUSD price movements. Better-than-expected readings would likely support the euro and push EURUSD higher, while disappointing figures would undermine the pair. Meanwhile, the U.S. releases retail sales and ADP employment data, with outcomes influencing the dollar’s strength inversely affecting EURUSD. No extraordinary sudden events are expected today; focus remains on these economic data releases for short-term price action cues.

Resistance & Support

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