Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the USD/JPY pair has shown a steady yet firm upward trend, fluctuating mostly between 159.40 and 159.70, with yesterday’s closing price at 159.67. The market was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which heightened demand for the US dollar. US President Donald Trump’s recent speech suggested the Iran conflict could drag on into May, amplifying the global risk-off sentiment, strengthening the dollar, while reducing yen’s traditional safe-haven appeal, keeping USD/JPY elevated.

Meanwhile, speculation over potential intervention by Tokyo to curb the yen remains cautious, as trading volumes were relatively subdued and the price hovered near 159.60. For the average investor, the ongoing geopolitical risks have boosted demand for the dollar as a safe asset, and the USD/JPY movements directly reflect changing investor preferences for safety amid uncertainty.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a clear uptrend in USDJPY since early in the year, with prices consistently above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, confirming bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility. However, the RSI shows bearish divergence, warning of a possible short-term pullback. Price is currently consolidating between 159.50 and 160.20, digesting recent gains in a sideways pattern.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, USDJPY has been gradually rising over the past 3-5 days, repeatedly testing the critical 160 psychological level without a sustained break. The MACD histogram remains positive, indicating strong short-term momentum. Price action near the upper Bollinger Band suggests short-term bullish bias. A small flag pattern has formed, suggesting a potential breakout; however, if bearish signals emerge, traders should be wary of a possible correction.

Technical Trend:  Sustained uptrend with cautious short-term consolidation

Technically, USDJPY remains in a strong uptrend, though daily RSI divergence signals caution for a near-term retracement. The hourly MACD’s positive readings confirm current bullish momentum. The pair is building a small ascending triangle near key resistance at 160, with a breakout likely to trigger further gains. Given the geopolitical backdrop boosting the USD, traders should stay alert for momentum shifts and any surprises in US economic releases.

There are no direct economic events relevant to USDJPY today in the GMT+1 time zone. However, the market’s focus will be on the upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll data release at 14:30 GMT+1 (22:30 HKT). Stronger than expected data could lift the USD and push USDJPY higher, while weaker data may cause a short-term pullback and increased volatility.

Resistance & Support

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