In the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD exchange rate continued to face pressure, slipping below the 1.14 mark and hitting its lowest level since August 2025. Yesterday’s closing price stood at 1.13764, slightly down by approximately 0.00054 from the previous day. The decline was mainly driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, which propelled the US Dollar to a one-year high, putting clear pressure on the Euro. ECB President Lagarde sidestepped discussions on the neutral rate and revealed weak manufacturing PMI data, deepening market concerns about the Eurozone’s economic outlook and causing further Euro weakness.

This year’s notable selloff in tech stocks, especially among AI-related shares, added to market volatility and boosted investor demand for safe havens. The US Dollar benefited accordingly, particularly as the US 10-year Treasury yield’s slight drop briefly encouraged risk appetite, yet strong Fed rate hike expectations kept the dollar’s momentum intact. For the average investor, this translates into a market environment where tightening US monetary policy combined with European economic softness continues to bolster the dollar short-term while weighing heavily on the Euro, demanding careful risk management in currency exposure.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a clear downtrend in EURUSD since the early-year peak at 1.20831. Recently, prices have fallen below both the 50-day moving average (1.16309) and the 200-day moving average (1.16674), with Bollinger Bands expanding downward, indicating sustained selling pressure. The MACD remains negative, confirming bearish momentum, although prices are nearing the lowest levels seen since August 2025, suggesting potential for limited rebounds.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days displays intensified volatility, with a bearish crossover of the 5 and 20 moving averages signaling short-term selling dominance. Bollinger Bands expanded downward following a period of contraction, and MACD histogram is shrinking towards the zero line without clear divergence yet. A recent large bearish candle with a lower shadow indicates some weakening of bearish momentum, but no clear reversal signals have formed.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is cautiously bearish, with price action oscillating near critical support levels awaiting a decisive directional move.

Technically, EURUSD is trading within a visible descending triangle formation, suggesting a bearish bias. A break below the key support at 1.1380 could accelerate downside momentum. The daily candlestick pattern recently formed a bullish engulfing with a lower shadow, hinting at a possible short-term bounce. Attention should be paid to the 10:00 Eurozone PMI releases today as volume and momentum indicators like MACD could trigger a significant intraday move or a corrective rebound.

Today’s economic calendar features multiple Eurozone PMI preliminary releases. Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3, slightly below the forecast of 51.6, while Services PMI rose to 48.9 above expectations of 48.5, indicating a mixed but generally weak growth profile. French PMIs beat expectations, whereas German PMIs missed, reflecting uneven regional dynamics. Overall, these economic figures suggest continued limited economic growth in the Eurozone, likely sustaining downward pressure on EURUSD. Japanese manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase with limited impact on USD volatility. There are no major US releases directly impacting EURUSD today.

Resistance & Support

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