Over the past 48 hours, AUD/USD has continued the strength seen last week, holding near 0.7030—the highest weekly close in seven weeks. Despite a slight pullback from yesterday’s close at 0.70565 (down about 0.35%), the overall trend remains bullish. The main driver behind this rise has been a softer US dollar, attributed to the Federal Reserve’s pause on aggressive rate hikes and the Bank of Japan’s intervention to curb yen volatility, which has redirected market flows towards risk assets, boosting the Australian dollar.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by hiking rates by 25 basis points to 4.1%, reinforcing the Aussie’s fundamental support. Investors are also eyeing Australia’s upcoming trade balance data, seen as a key short-term driver. Although geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran conflict, have heightened stagflation fears and caused swings in risk appetite, AUD, as a risk proxy currency with ties to commodity exports, has demonstrated resilience amid global capital flows and commodity price support.

For the average investor, this market action signifies a retreat in traditional safe-havens like the US dollar and yen, while commodities-linked currencies like the AUD gain ground. Navigating the dual impact of central bank policies and geopolitical risks requires vigilant monitoring and prudent adjustment of forex positions during this volatile period.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a steadily rising trend for AUDUSD since the start of the year. Recently, the price successfully broke above a long-term descending trendline, signaling renewed bullish control and steady support above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Bollinger Bands indicate price leaning toward the upper band with increased volatility, while MACD displays a golden cross reinforcing strong buying momentum. The overall trend is distinctly bullish and robust.

1H Chart

Focusing on the last 3-5 days on the hourly chart, AUDUSD exhibits heightened volatility oscillating between 0.7000 and 0.7060. The price has rebounded off the 45-hour moving average support, and the MACD is trending upward with a cross over the signal line, indicating strengthening short-term buying pressure. Bollinger Band width expanding suggests a potential breakout or acceleration in trend. The short-term rhythm is bullish, supporting continuation of the daily uptrend structure.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is decisively bullish, with price momentum building and confirming a breakout above previous resistance, dominating market direction.

The most crucial technical signals currently are the MACD golden cross on the daily chart and price sustaining above the major descending trendline, confirming bullish momentum. The hourly chart shows gaining momentum with expanding Bollinger Bands, indicating trend continuation potential. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern suggests further upward moves over the next 24 hours. Traders should watch for breakouts near key resistance levels while maintaining protective stops below critical support zones.

Today’s economic calendar in GMT+1 shows no major direct data releases for the Australian Dollar, but key events include the US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 14:30 which will significantly influence the US Dollar and thus AUDUSD. Stronger-than-expected US labor data may boost USD and pressure AUDUSD lower; weaker data would favor AUDUSD gains. Early Japanese Household Spending data at 01:30 is also relevant given recent yen interventions affecting USD. Overall, no major Australian events today, with market focus on US-led risk sentiment.

Resistance & Support

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