In the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair displayed notable volatility and upward momentum. The closing price yesterday stood at 1.15804, with the price fluctuating between 1.15674 and 1.15848 before closing slightly higher. This upward move was primarily driven by weaker-than-expected US retail sales data, which weighed on the US dollar and allowed the euro to break through key resistance levels.

Latest market news highlights that following the disappointing US retail sales figures, investors shifted towards the euro as a safer asset, pushing EUR/USD to an intraday high of 1.15783. This development sparked bullish sentiment with short-term momentum favoring the euro. Looking ahead, the markets are closely watching the upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, where core inflation is expected to ease to 3.4%. This report will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy stance and thereby significantly influence the EUR/USD exchange rate.

For the average investor, this move underscores how global economic data surprises can quickly sway market sentiment towards relatively stronger currencies. Underwhelming US economic data forces traders to reassess the dollar’s outlook, fueling appreciation in the euro. In the coming days, investors should keep a close eye on the US CPI report and geopolitical developments as these will likely continue to steer the EUR/USD dynamics.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a clear uptrend in EURUSD since early 2026, with price recently challenging key resistance near 1.1580. The 200-day moving average is positioned at 1.16262, slightly above current levels, indicating some resistance ahead. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average at about 1.14656 provides strong support below. Bollinger Bands are widening, signaling increased volatility, and the MACD histogram remains positive, highlighting bullish momentum. The overall daily trend favors the bulls, though attention should be paid to the critical 1.1626 resistance.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, the past 3-5 days show EURUSD consolidating with a mildly rising bias. Price repeatedly found support near 1.1528 while the 4-hour EMA around 1.1560 acts as near-term resistance. A recent high just shy of 1.1578 was met with some profit-taking. Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating a potential breakout phase. MACD is nearing a bullish crossover while RSI is neutral to mildly bullish, suggesting upward momentum is building. Watch closely for a break above 1.1570 to confirm further gains.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD’s current trend is cautiously bullish, with the uptrend intact but facing medium-term resistance; traders should stay alert and adjust positions accordingly.

Technically, EURUSD is forming an expanding wedge pattern, supported above 1.1495. The daily chart recently showed a bullish engulfing candlestick, signaling strong buying pressure in the near term. Hourly MACD is close to a golden cross and widening Bollinger Bands indicate increased breakout potential. A clear break above the 1.1570-1.1580 resistance zone could accelerate the trend upward. Conversely, failure to hold above 1.1528 support may prompt a short-term retracement.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar features data mostly from Japan and China, including preliminary 2Q GDP figures and industrial production, which bear little immediate impact on EURUSD. There are no major US or Eurozone events directly scheduled today that would significantly influence the pair. Thus, short-term EURUSD price action is expected to be driven mainly by sentiment and major news rather than scheduled economic releases.

Resistance & Support

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