Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD currency pair has experienced notable volatility. The closing price yesterday stood at 1.15234. This fluctuation mainly stems from soaring energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The sharp rise in oil prices has amplified market concerns over inflationary pressures.

This situation has led to doubts about whether central banks need to continue with interest rate hikes. Especially amid cooling inflation in the Eurozone, the US’s steady CPI report is now a major focus for traders. This uncertainty has kept the EUR/USD struggling around the 1.15 level, with near-term pressure evident.

For the average investor, this scenario can be likened to a balancing act: on one hand, fears of rising inflation driven by higher oil prices could enforce tighter monetary policy; on the other, easing inflation in Europe combined with stable US data offers some reassurance. This conflicting sentiment has heightened short-term volatility in the EUR/USD and added layers of risk to investment portfolios.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a longer-term downtrend with EURUSD testing the 1.1507 four-month low before bouncing back. Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating reduced volatility, while moving averages show a bearish crossover. The 200-day moving average near 1.16872 acts as a significant resistance, with the 50-day MA around 1.17686 adding short-term pressure. MACD remains below zero, hinting sellers haven’t fully backed off. Overall, the daily chart depicts a tug-of-war between bulls and bears with resistance zones capping upside potential.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, EURUSD has traded between approximately 1.1500 and 1.1600 over the past 3-5 days, showing a short-term technical rebound. The price is near the 9-day EMA support at roughly 1.1850 (relative from news context). Bollinger Bands are moderately spaced, suggesting sideways consolidation. A recent MACD bullish crossover signals short-term buying momentum. There was also a significant bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, indicating potential continuation of the upward move, though watch for volatility from upcoming US data.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD currently shows a cautiously bullish rangebound trend, with price action sensitive to external inflationary pressures and geopolitical factors. Short-term momentum supports a mild recovery, but volatility remains elevated.

Technically, EURUSD is testing vital support near 1.1500. Defending this level limits further downside in the short term. The recent hourly MACD bullish crossover and bullish engulfing pattern provide a positive technical signal for a rebound. However, daily moving averages still indicate bearish control, reflecting ongoing contest between buyers and sellers. The crucial pivot is 1.1673; a break above this level could trigger stronger upside momentum. Traders should be cautious of US inflation data, which may disrupt the technical balance.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar includes multiple data releases from the UK, EU, and US, with key US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and GDP revisions scheduled at 13:30 GMT+1 (20:30 HKT). These releases are particularly relevant for EURUSD. If US inflation data confirms steady or easing pressures, the dollar may weaken, supporting euro gains. Conversely, stronger than expected US data could reinforce the dollar’s dominance and pressure EURUSD downward. European production statistics are expected to be stable, offering limited immediate impact. Overall, no immediate market-moving event but US data later may shift price action.

Resistance & Support

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