Over the past 24 to 48 hours, AUD/USD displayed notable volatility, slightly dipping from yesterday’s close at 0.72386 but maintaining a relatively strong level. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike to 4.10%, alongside inflation risks fueled by Middle East energy conflicts, were key factors driving recent price fluctuations. Oil price swings and China’s weak recovery further influenced investor risk appetite, impacting the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

For investors observing the market over these days, this can be seen as a psychological battle triggered by geopolitical tensions and global energy supply uncertainties. While the RBA’s rate increases support the currency, the slowdown in global recovery and rising safe-haven demand have spurred fierce tug-of-war on AUD/USD. In this context, AUD/USD acts like a barometer of global risk sentiment, reminding traders to closely monitor policy moves and macroeconomic developments.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a steady uptrend since the beginning of the year, with AUDUSD trading near the 0.72 level. Both the 50-day (0.70732) and 200-day (0.68087) moving averages slope upward, confirming a sustained bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands have slightly narrowed, indicating reduced volatility, while the MACD remains positive and trending higher, supporting continued upward momentum. Price action steadily approaches the yearly high of 0.72776, signalling persistent buyer strength.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days shows AUDUSD initiating a new bullish impulse after bouncing above the critical 0.7090 support. Short-term moving averages formed bullish crossovers, and Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting increased short-term volatility. The MACD crossed upwards above zero, confirming strengthened momentum. Recent consecutive bullish candles indicate sustained buying interest and potential further gains in the near term.

Technical Trend:  Decisively Bullish

Technically, AUDUSD’s bounce above the 0.7090 major support marks a decisive bullish continuation. Both daily and hourly charts confirm upward momentum with positive MACD divergences and strong moving average support. The formation of a bullish flag pattern combined with a series of bullish candlesticks highlights sustained buying pressure. Traders should monitor potential intraday pullbacks, especially near the resistance barrier at 0.7277, to confirm breakout strength via volume confirmation.

Today’s economic calendar features China’s new loans, M2 money supply, and Australian Wage Price Index, all expected to be in line with forecasts. For AUDUSD, the Wage Price Index forecast of 0.8% maintaining prior levels suggests limited immediate impact. The main focus remains on the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data which, if stronger than expected, could support the USD and pressure AUDUSD lower. Overall, no major direct economic events today should significantly sway AUDUSD, but watch global risk sentiment closely.

Resistance & Support

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