Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair traded within a relatively narrow range, closing near 1.1649, slightly down from the previous day. The key driver has been a mix of a firm U.S. dollar amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a somewhat easing Middle East situation. The dollar initially gained from safe-haven demand but its rally softened as the U.S.-Iran truce held, prompting a mild bounce in the euro.

Danske Bank’s latest forecast suggests the dollar will remain strong in the short term but revised its outlook expecting the euro to reach around 1.12 within 12 months. Meanwhile, Nordea Bank anticipates that the dollar’s rebound is not sustainable, with a year-end target for EUR/USD near 1.25. These views indicate investor sentiment balancing short-term dollar strength versus longer-term euro recovery potential.

For the average investor, these moves reflect the ongoing uncertainty in global politics and economic outlooks. The dollar’s temporary rise was spurred by risk aversion, but signs of easing geopolitical tensions have lifted euro optimism. This means traders should stay alert to macroeconomic and political developments in the coming months as these will continue to shape currency trends.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD’s long-term bearish trend since the start of the year, but recent price action has formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation between roughly 1.1550 and 1.1650. This pattern began to take shape in mid-May. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages currently stand at 1.16819 and 1.16738, respectively, with prices trading below both averages, indicating ongoing longer-term resistance. The MACD momentum indicator shows waning momentum without a clear divergence. This consolidation signals that a breakout is likely imminent, with a decisive move above the triangle potentially reigniting upward momentum.

1H Chart

The hourly chart reveals a short-term rebound in EURUSD over the past 3 to 5 days, but price action has encountered resistance near 1.1655. Bollinger Bands indicate price rejection at the middle band, with the 20 and 50-period moving averages intertwining, reflecting a short-term consolidation phase. The MACD lines recently crossed, showing balanced momentum between bulls and bears. A recent bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern suggests possible downside risk over the next 24 hours. Traders should monitor volume and price stability closely for confirmation.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD is currently in a cautious consolidation phase, characterized by sideways price action awaiting a clear breakout direction.

Technically, EURUSD is at a crucial juncture within a symmetrical triangle consolidation. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages act as stiff resistance, while the hourly Evening Star candlestick warns of short-term pullbacks. A confirmed breakout above 1.1675–1.1680 would signal the start of a renewed uptrend. Conversely, a breach below the 1.1610 support could accelerate declines. Monitoring MACD momentum shifts and volume spikes will be critical for identifying high-probability trading opportunities.

Today’s economic calendar includes pivotal Eurozone data releases such as France’s Consumer Price Index, Germany’s Import Prices, and revised Q1 GDP figures from multiple countries. These releases are likely to impact the Euro directly, with higher inflation readings potentially supporting a stronger Euro. In Asia, Japan’s early morning data will have limited impact on EURUSD. No major US economic data is scheduled today, which means USD moves may be more influenced by geopolitical developments and market sentiment. Overall, European releases will be the key drivers for EURUSD price action.

Resistance & Support

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