Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the USD/CAD pair exhibited notable volatility and upward momentum. The closing price yesterday stood at 1.36357, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 1.3600 and 1.3640 recently. The pair’s movement was influenced significantly by economic data from both the US and Canada, as well as shifts in commodity prices. Recently, weaker-than-expected Canadian employment data weighed on the Canadian dollar, pushing USD/CAD higher.

According to the latest market news, “USD/CAD gains some momentum as weak Canadian jobs data weighs on loonie,” the unexpected drop in Canadian employment numbers caused the market to lose some confidence in the loonie, thereby boosting the US dollar. This scenario highlights for everyday investors that a country’s weaker economic performance directly puts pressure on its currency, affecting exchange rates. Additionally, the pullback in oil prices and stable Federal Reserve policy have further influenced the movement between the US dollar index and the Canadian dollar.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows USDCAD trading within a range of 1.34813 to 1.41405, currently hovering below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bearish long-term trend. Bollinger Bands are slightly expanding downward, and the MACD is negative with downward momentum, confirming the dominant bearish sentiment. Recent attempts to break above the 1.3635 resistance have not succeeded, signaling continued selling pressure and persistent downward bias.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days depicts a fluctuating trend with short-term moving averages arranged bullishly. However, price repeatedly faces resistance between 1.3620 and 1.3650. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, showing reduced volatility, and the MACD forms a bullish crossover, suggesting a short-term rebound opportunity. Volume remains subdued, indicating the bulls have yet to gain full control and further confirmation is needed.

Technical Trend:  Current Trend: Cautiously bullish short-term rebound within a longer-term bearish framework.

Technically, the daily MACD continues to indicate selling pressure with expanding lower Bollinger Bands, reinforcing the bearish trend. The hourly MACD bullish crossover provides a short-term bounce potential but lacks volume support for continuation. The key resistance at 1.3635 is critical — a breakout could prompt a short-term rally, while failure may lead to a decline back toward support near 1.3550. Traders should watch the Canadian jobs data release for decisive directional cues.

There are no major global economic events directly impacting USDCAD today within the GMT+1 timeframe from 08:00 to 16:00. However, Canadian employment data released at 14:30 (HKT 21:30) shows unemployment expected steady at 6.9%, but employment change forecasted at -17.7K, weaker than expected. Should the data confirm weakness, further pressure on the Canadian dollar is likely. Simultaneous US employment data releases will also be closely watched for potential comparative impacts on USDCAD price action.

Resistance & Support

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