Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the GBP/USD exchange rate showed notable volatility, slightly retreating from yesterday afternoon’s close at 1.33296. As the US-Iran ceasefire entered its ninth week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained strong, particularly boosted by stronger-than-expected US employment data. This has directly pressured the British Pound against the US Dollar, with GBP/USD hitting a two-week low during the session.

The sustained US-Iran truce and gradual normalization of oil flows helped improve risk appetite, yet failed to significantly bolster the Pound against the Dollar. During this period, the market largely regarded the US Dollar as a safer haven, causing GBP/USD to underperform. While hopes for Middle East tensions easing had briefly lifted the Pound, robust US economic data ultimately limited any upward momentum.

For the average investor, this situation means holding Dollar assets might be safer amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and resilient US economic indicators. Increased market volatility and a strong Dollar add pressure on the Pound, signaling traders should remain cautious and closely monitor evolving news developments.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows GBPUSD in a mild downtrend with prices mostly trading below the 50-day moving average (around 1.34858) and 200-day moving average (around 1.34062), indicating a medium-term bearish bias. The Bollinger Bands have contracted, signaling decreased volatility. The MACD hovers near the zero line without a clear reversal signal. Price action points to a consolidation phase, with possible testing of support near 1.33. Should price hold the key averages, a sideways to slightly bullish bias may resume.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, GBPUSD has traded sideways over the past 3-5 days but showed a downward move post-US jobs data, fluctuating between 1.331 and 1.335. The MACD has made a bearish crossover and is expanding downward, RSI has dipped near 40 suggesting increasing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands are widening, suggesting rising short-term volatility. A small descending flag pattern has formed, which if broken to downside may extend the short-term bearish momentum.

Technical Trend:  Current Trend: Cautiously bearish with consolidation, testing support levels in the short term while guarding against continued dollar strength.

Technically, GBPUSD shows signs of short-term bearish sentiment dominated by a strong dollar. The MACD bearish crossover and falling RSI point to negative momentum. Failure to hold immediate support could trigger a drop toward 1.3280. The 50 and 200-day moving averages are acting as resistance. Monitoring price response at these critical levels is key, with risk management remaining paramount amid uncertainty.

Today’s key economic releases feature Japan’s Q1 GDP and trade figures at 01:50 GMT+1 (08:50 HKT). While better-than-expected Japanese data could impact USDJPY, the direct effect on GBPUSD is limited. Other European and Czech data, including factory orders and unemployment rates, are not expected to significantly influence GBPUSD. Overall, no major economic events today directly impacting GBPUSD.

Resistance & Support

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