Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair exhibited notable volatility, dipping from yesterday’s closing price of 1.14338 down to an intraday low near 1.13828, driven by several key factors. The US dollar showed resilience following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, supported by strong US fundamentals and persistent fiscal deficits, maintaining its appeal as a reserve currency.

Furthermore, June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated cooling inflation, falling from May’s 4.2% year-over-year increase to an expected 3.8%, while core inflation remained steady at 2.9%. This created a cautious yet optimistic market mood. Meanwhile, on the European front, rising energy prices and increasing economic pressures—such as a weakening labor market in France—dampened Euro sentiment, further weighing on the EUR/USD rate.

Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, contributing to the recent EUR/USD decline. For everyday investors, this translates to potential continued short-term volatility in the Euro against the US Dollar. Forex traders should closely monitor Fed policy signals and geopolitical developments to adapt their investment approach accordingly.

Daily Chart

The daily chart displays a clear downtrend for EURUSD since early 2026, with the price hovering around 1.14 at present. Short-term moving averages have crossed below longer-term lines, confirming bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands narrowed before recently widening, signaling increased volatility. The MACD remains negative with a bearish crossover, indicating sustained selling pressure. Overall, the daily timeframe supports a bearish outlook, with critical resistance near 1.1550 and 1.1600.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the last 3-5 days shows EURUSD moving sideways with a slight downward bias. Prices struggle around the Bollinger Bands’ midline with frequent oscillations, reflecting short-term indecision. The 15- and 50-hour moving averages are intertwined, and MACD lines have been crossing around the zero line, highlighting choppy momentum. A descending triangle pattern began forming midweek, suggesting stronger downside pressure. Recent candlesticks show a doji formation, implying near-term uncertainty. Traders should watch the critical 1.1380 support level closely for break confirmation.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD is currently in a cautiously bearish phase, showing short-term consolidation within an overall bearish momentum.

Key technical insights revolve around the descending triangle on the hourly chart, signaling a potential breakout soon. The daily MACD bearish crossover and declining moving averages confirm the downtrend, but the doji candle on the hourly cautions short-term uncertainty. Amid geopolitical tensions boosting the dollar and inflation dynamics, price is confined between critical support at 1.1380 and resistance near 1.1450. Watch for a decisively closed break of these levels to confirm the next directional move, with downside risk prevailing if support gives way.

Today’s economic calendar highlights the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 14:30 GMT+1, a pivotal event for EURUSD. The market anticipates a tick down to 3.8% year-over-year inflation with core CPI steady at 2.9%. Better-than-expected data could strengthen the dollar and push EURUSD lower. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day, adding to volatility potential. Other global data focus mainly on Asia and Europe without direct immediate impact on EURUSD. Traders should prioritize US inflation data and Fed commentary for managing exposure.

Resistance & Support

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