Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD (Euro to US Dollar) pair experienced notable price volatility. Yesterday’s closing price was 1.13848. Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent policy decision, the pair slid down to an intraday low of 1.13680 and is currently trading around 1.13711. The movement was mainly driven by ECB’s decision to hold interest rates steady, defying market expectations for a change, which capped the euro’s rally.

The ECB’s hold on rates weakened bullish sentiment on the euro, causing a short-term retracement in EUR/USD. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains around Federal Reserve (Fed) remarks and US economic data, with the market awaiting key inflation figures. This environment saw the US dollar strengthen against other major currencies like the CHF, reflecting a shift in risk appetite and keeping EUR/USD under pressure.

For average investors, this means the euro’s earlier gains are now limited due to the ECB’s steady stance. If you hold euro positions, be wary of short-term market swings. With important US CPI data on the horizon, forex markets are likely to remain cautious. Investors should closely monitor central bank updates and macroeconomic indicators for future trends.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD pulling back from recent highs around 1.145, with prices finding short-term support near 1.1368. The pair remains below its 50-day moving average (~1.15) and 200-day moving average (~1.16), indicating a bearish intermediate-term trend. Bollinger Bands have contracted, signaling reduced volatility and potential consolidation. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is waning, which could favor a short-term stabilization or bounce.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, EURUSD has been consolidating above the 1.1368 support level over the past 3-5 days, recently trading around 1.1371. The price is close to the Bollinger Bands midline near 1.1380 but hasn’t yet broken out decisively. A nascent MACD bullish crossover is visible, hinting at improving momentum. RSI hovers near neutral levels, consistent with a sideways to slightly bullish short-term outlook. The pair may trade in a range between 1.1360 and 1.1390 until more definitive momentum emerges.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD is currently in a cautious consolidation phase with no clear directional bias, reflecting a volatile sideways trend.

Technically, EURUSD shows early signs of a short-term bottoming pattern. The MACD momentum is transitioning from negative towards positive territory, suggesting an upcoming bounce. Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are tightening, indicating consolidation phase. The immediate resistance lies near 1.1390 at the Bollinger midline while support remains firm in the 1.1360–1.1370 region. A clear breakout above 1.1390 could trigger a short-term rally, whereas a drop below 1.1360 would deepen downside risk. Traders should watch the hourly MACD bullish crossover coupled with volume spikes as potential high-probability entry signals.

Today’s economic calendar features important Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI releases scheduled around 10:00 GMT+1, which will provide fresh data on the bloc’s economic health and could significantly impact EURUSD price direction. Additionally, UK and German retail sales and unemployment data earlier in the morning may influence European market sentiment indirectly affecting the pair. Japanese inflation figures were released overnight but have limited direct impact on EURUSD. No major U.S. economic events are on today’s schedule, making Eurozone PMI the key data to watch for traders.

Resistance & Support

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