Over the past 48 hours, GBP/USD has experienced notable volatility. Starting around yesterday’s close at approximately 1.3472, the pair faced resistance near 1.3550, influenced by the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish stance supporting the pound and soft US data pressuring the dollar.

In the latest BoE meeting, despite a unanimous 9-0 vote to hold interest rates steady, Governor Bailey emphasized persistent inflation risks, delivering a broadly hawkish tone that underpinned the pound and prevented sharp declines. Meanwhile, the US dollar came under pressure amid weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly labor market figures pointing to a slowing growth momentum, which allowed GBP/USD to rebound. Additionally, heightened Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, prompting cautious risk sentiment in forex markets.

For the average investor, this recent price action reflects the pound’s underlying resilience, supported by tightening monetary policy and steady UK labor market data, while the short-term softness in the US dollar creates rebound opportunities. Attention to upcoming UK and US economic releases remains critical, as shifts in policy outlook and risk appetite will directly shape the sterling-dollar exchange rate momentum going forward.

Daily Chart

The GBPUSD daily chart illustrates an overall upward trend since early this year, with recent price consolidation near 1.35 acting as resistance. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain in bullish alignment, supporting the underlying uptrend. The Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating a period of consolidation and potential breakout. The MACD shows diminishing bullish momentum, signaling possible short-term correction or consolidation, thus traders should monitor whether the key moving average supports hold.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days depicts GBPUSD oscillating between 1.3450 and 1.35, with short-term moving averages (9 and 21 periods) crossing, showing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The Bollinger Bands expanded then narrowed as price retraced. A recent bearish engulfing candlestick suggests near-term downside pressure. A decisive break below 1.3460 could trigger further correction, although the MACD has not yet crossed bearish, implying continued short-term volatility.

Technical Trend:  GBPUSD is currently in a cautious sideways consolidation phase, maintaining a bullish bias overall but showing short-term indecision and oscillation.

Technically, GBPUSD is confronting resistance at 1.3550 within an overall daily uptrend. The short-term bearish engulfing on the hourly chart combined with approaching MACD crossover warns of a possible momentum shift. Traders should watch how the price reacts to support near 1.3460 as this level is key to determining the next directional move, offering high-probability trade setups based on volume and momentum changes.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar lacks any direct data releases impacting GBPUSD specifically. Key reports such as Eurozone and German Manufacturing PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing Index could indirectly influence USD momentum. Stronger-than-expected US ISM data might bolster the USD and weigh on GBPUSD, while weaker prints could relieve pressure and support a pound rebound.

Resistance & Support

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