Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the AUD/USD pair has traded within a range of approximately 0.708 to 0.712, showing resilience despite slight declines from yesterday’s closing price of 0.70864. Market sentiment has been largely driven by anticipation of the upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, viewed as a key near-term uncertainty. With the AUD/USD hovering near the psychological 0.7000 level, investors remain cautious, waiting for fresh data to direct the next move.

Recent headlines such as “AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flat lines below mid-0.7000s/100-SMA as bulls await US NFP” highlight that while the pair has found some technical support, it lacks a decisive breakout, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical tensions and what analysts term the “war premium” add downward pressure on the Australian dollar. Investor focus is also firmly on future Federal Reserve rate decisions and upcoming Australian inflation data. This cocktail of factors has kept the AUD/USD fluctuating modestly, reflecting current market uncertainty and a wait-and-see mindset.

For the average investor, this scenario is like holding Australian dollars at a critical crossroads where pressures and supports balance out. The price isn’t plunging, but there is no clear upward momentum either, because the market is collectively holding its breath for the US employment report. How and when the market will move next hinges on this data. For now, patience and caution are the prudent strategy.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals AUDUSD recovering from a low around 0.6920 over the past week, currently holding above the 21-day EMA with confirmed breakout above the primary descending trendline, indicating a medium-term bullish trend. Price shows resistance near 0.7100 and has consolidated recently. Bollinger Bands narrowing suggest reduced volatility. The MACD histogram is expanding in positive territory, signaling ongoing bullish momentum but warrants vigilance for any overbought conditions.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart over the past 3-5 days, AUDUSD rebounded from 0.6950 to approximately 0.7090, with consistent closes above the 21-EMA and 100-SMA, confirming a short-term bullish bias. Recent bullish engulfing and hammer candlesticks, alongside increased volume, reinforce buying confidence. The MACD has formed a bullish crossover (golden cross), indicating strengthened momentum favoring further near-term upside, although resistance at 0.7120-0.7130 may lead to pullbacks.

Technical Trend:  Trend Direction: Cautiously Bullish, with a clear short to medium-term upward bias.

Technically, the key focus is maintaining above the 0.7000 level on the daily chart, affirming bullish control. The MACD is gradually expanding in positive territory with the RSI indicating moderate strength but no overbought condition, suggesting room for further upside. The hourly MACD golden cross signals a short-term buy opportunity, supported by multiple solid support levels between 0.6920 and 0.6950. Watch for resistance at 0.7100 and 0.7130; a breakout above these would confirm continued bullish momentum.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar includes significant releases such as New Zealand’s Producer Price Index at 00:45, Japan’s Machinery Orders at 01:50, and Australia’s Wage Price Index at 03:30. The Australian wage data is particularly relevant for the AUDUSD, with forecasts steady at 0.8% q/q, aligning with previous figures. The US FOMC minutes scheduled for 20:00 could also sway market sentiment. Overall, no major surprises are expected today, suggesting AUDUSD may trade within a range, influenced mainly by stable wage data and dovish-to-neutral US monetary signals.

Resistance & Support

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