Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the British Pound against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) has maintained a bullish trend, trading around the mid-1.3600 range and nearing its highest level since February 11 at 1.3660. Yesterday’s closing price was 1.36472, reflecting a slight gain compared to the previous day. This upward momentum is primarily driven by ongoing US dollar weakness and fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Recent weak US economic data, including disappointing retail and consumer figures, have further reduced market bets on Fed tightening. This has pushed investors to shift funds towards non-dollar assets like the British Pound, causing its appreciation. Meanwhile, eased UK political risks have boosted bullish sentiment, with UBS forecasting the Pound could climb to 1.40 by year-end.

For the average investor, this means the Pound is well-positioned to break through key resistance levels, reflecting increased market confidence in UK economic prospects and shifting global monetary policy. Should the US dollar continue to weaken, the GBP/USD pair could extend gains towards 1.41 or beyond. Investors should closely watch upcoming data releases and central bank signals to capture timely opportunities.

Daily Chart

The daily chart illustrates a steady uptrend starting mid-month, with GBPUSD comfortably above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, confirming a medium to long-term bullish stance. Bollinger Bands are widening, signaling increased volatility with an upward bias. MACD remains above the zero line, showing strong momentum favoring buyers. The pair is testing the key resistance near 1.3660; a successful breakout here could herald further gains. The overall daily technical setup aligns with the bullish fundamentals, showing no signs of reversal.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart, GBPUSD has trended upward over the last 3-5 days, trading near the upper Bollinger Band. Short-term moving averages (20 and 50) are aligned bullishly, with prices consistently above them. A golden cross is observed on the MACD around the zero level, indicating strengthening short-term bullish momentum. The critical resistance range of 1.3650 to 1.3660 has seen recent price rejections, with support near 1.3620. Candlesticks show small-bodied bullish bars with wicks, reflecting active buy-sell battles. Short-term outlook remains bullish, warranting close attention to potential breakout opportunities.

Technical Trend:  The current trend for GBPUSD is decisively bullish, supported by strong fundamental and technical factors, with investor sentiment firmly positive.

Key technical insights for GBPUSD include sustained bullish momentum on the daily MACD and a golden cross signal on the hourly MACD, indicating potential acceleration of the upward trend. Bollinger Bands widening suggest increasing volatility with upward pressure. The 1.3660 resistance level remains critical; a decisive break above could ignite fresh buying interest targeting 1.3750 and 1.3850. Conversely, supports at 1.3620 and 1.3580 provide short-term cushions. Coupled with dollar weakness and improved UK political outlook, GBPUSD’s bullish setup offers a high-probability trade environment.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar does not feature any major UK or US data releases directly impacting GBPUSD. Retail sales and money supply reports from Poland and New Zealand are scheduled but have minimal bearing on GBPUSD movements. Consequently, the pair is expected to follow current fundamental and technical trends, with price action likely influenced by broader USD sentiment and global risk appetite in the absence of significant news.

Resistance & Support

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