Over the past 48 hours, the EUR/USD exchange rate showed a slight upward trend, closing yesterday at 1.1685, marking a modest increase from the previous trading day and reflecting a relatively optimistic market sentiment. This movement was mainly driven by fresh market news, notably a recent bank survey forecasting a gradual strengthening of the euro against the dollar, potentially reaching 1.18 by 2027.

Additionally, weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data have put pressure on the dollar, supporting the euro’s rise above 1.1570 in the short term. U.S. fiscal concerns and falling long-term Treasury yields also weighed on the U.S. dollar index (DXY), further boosting EUR/USD. However, uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank’s monetary policy remains a significant restraint on the euro’s momentum.

For everyday investors, these developments highlight that EUR/USD is at a critical juncture, influenced by a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. With the dollar weakening, the euro may maintain its upward momentum in the near future. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and the ongoing Middle East tensions closely to assess whether EUR/USD can break above the 1.17 resistance level.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD in a generally consolidative uptrend since the start of the year, repeatedly testing resistance near 1.17 leading to a high-level range. Bollinger Bands indicate price approaching the upper band, signaling short-term overbought conditions but potential for breakout. The 50-day moving average stands at 1.1473 and the 200-day near 1.1628, with price currently above the 200-day MA, suggesting a medium-to-long-term bullish trend. MACD lines are slightly trending upwards, hinting at a recovery in momentum.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart over the last 3-5 days, EURUSD fluctuated between 1.15 and 1.17 with several upward breakout attempts. Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating increased volatility. The MACD has recently formed a bullish crossover and RSI remains above 50, supporting short-term bullish bias. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick indicates potential for further upside testing the 1.17 resistance level in the next 24 hours.

Technical Trend:  Current EURUSD trend is cautiously bullish. Traders should watch for sustained price action above 1.17 to confirm strength in the uptrend.

Technically, EURUSD is forming an expanding wedge pattern on the daily chart; a breakout above the wedge’s upper boundary could unleash significant upside momentum. Recent bullish engulfing candlestick patterns reinforce short-term buying interest, supported by positive RSI and MACD signals alongside rising volume. The key risk lies at the strong resistance zone around 1.17; failure to break may lead to range-bound trading or retracement.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar highlights retail sales and money supply data from Poland; however, these releases have limited direct relevance to EURUSD movement, which is primarily driven by broader US-European macro factors and the USD Index. No significant or directly impactful economic events are scheduled today for EURUSD traders, who should monitor upcoming US nonfarm payroll data and geopolitical developments instead.

Resistance & Support

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