Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown steady and slightly bullish momentum, fluctuating near yesterday’s close around 1.1597. Market attention remains focused on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has pressured the US dollar to a 1.5-week low and supported euro strength. Latest inflation data from France and Germany indicate stable eurozone inflation, with declining energy prices helping to keep inflation subdued. This outlook reinforces the European Central Bank’s stance to hold rates steady in December, further bolstering the euro. Additionally, Wells Fargo forecasts the EUR/USD to peak below 1.19 in the near term, higher than current levels, but expects a dollar rebound by year-end that could lead to a euro pullback. These factors combine into a narrative where investors are supporting the euro amid softer dollar expectations and steady ECB policy. For the average investor, the market movement is driven by anticipated US monetary easing alongside stable eurozone inflation, making the euro appear resilient against a weakening dollar, despite some volatility. EUR/USD thus maintains a modestly favorable outlook in the short term.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a steady uptrend over the last 20 trading days for EURUSD, with price slowly ascending and consolidating near 1.16. The 50-day moving average (~1.1598) acts as immediate support, closely followed by the 200-day moving average (~1.1564). Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating rising volatility. The MACD histogram and signal lines remain bullish, suggesting sustained upward momentum. Overall, the daily chart points to a cautiously bullish trend, with near-term resistance requiring attention.

1H Chart

Examining the past 3-5 days on the hourly chart, EURUSD is trading within a range between 1.1555 and 1.1607, forming a consolidation pattern. The 50- and 200-hour moving averages intertwine, while MACD shows weakening momentum, indicating indecision and a neutral short-term outlook. A bearish engulfing candlestick recently formed, signaling potential short-term correction risk, though price is holding within the range. Bollinger Bands narrowing suggest decreasing volatility, so traders should watch for potential breakout or breakdown setups.

Technical Trend:
Neutral with bullish bias amid consolidation

Key technical insights include sustained daily MACD bullish signals supported by the 50-day moving average and the critical psychological support around 1.16. The hourly chart’s bearish engulfing pattern warns of near-term corrective risk, with a break below 1.1555 likely opening the door for further downside. Watch Bollinger Bands’ compression to anticipate a potential volatility break. A breakout above upper bands would reinforce bullish continuation.

The economic calendar today highlights China’s November Manufacturing and Services PMI data release at 02:30 GMT+1, showing 49.2 and 49.5 respectively, both slightly below expectations. This may mildly dampen risk appetite, indirectly impacting EURUSD during the Asian session. There are no major economic releases directly linked to the Eurozone or US today, so EURUSD price action will likely be driven by technical factors and market sentiment.

Resistance & Support

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