The Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) maintained its strength over the past 24-48 hours, closing Friday at 0.6545 with weekly gains of 1.45%. This rally was primarily driven by two key factors: broad US Dollar weakness and market repricing of expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent Australian inflation data above forecasts has bolstered expectations of delayed RBA easing, providing support to the Australian Dollar. Simultaneously, trader sentiment regarding potential Fed rate cuts continues to fluctuate dramatically, shifting roughly every 36 hours, making the Aussie an exceptionally volatile risk-sensitive currency.

Technically, AUD/USD has stabilized around 0.6525, a level representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent short-term bearish wave (from 0.6628 to 0.6422). Price action remains above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, providing dynamic support for further upside. Analysts highlight that the currency pair maintains a broad consolidation zone between 0.64 and 0.67, with 0.64 serving as a critical support level that has already proven its significance multiple times. Upper resistance levels are anchored at 0.6500 and 0.6600.

In the near term, the Australian Dollar reflects a combination of improved global risk appetite and US Dollar weakness. Wall Street staged a robust rally Friday with small-cap stocks leading gains, a performance in risk assets that typically lifts commodity currencies like the Aussie. However, the CME data-center outage has created thin liquidity conditions in forex markets, potentially impacting price action. Traders broadly expect the AUD to consolidate within its current range near-term, with shorter-term traders having profited from range-bound trading over the past four to five months. Investors should closely monitor US economic data releases, as these will directly influence Fed policy expectations and subsequently drive directional moves in the Australian Dollar.

Daily Chart

The daily chart depicts a steady uptrend for AUDUSD since early November. The price is currently testing the resistance near 0.655 and approaching the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) cluster which offers significant technical support. Bollinger Bands are mildly contracting, indicating reduced volatility but price remaining near the upper band suggests continued bullish pressure. The MACD remains in the positive zone and is trending upward, confirming ongoing bullish momentum. A breakout above recent highs could likely propel the price toward the 0.6600 level.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past five days shows a consolidating yet gradually rising pattern for AUDUSD. Short-term moving averages (20 and 50 SMA) have formed a bullish golden cross, signaling strengthening momentum. The MACD histogram has increased, highlighting clearly enhanced bullish power. Bollinger Bands have slightly widened displaying potential for increased short-term volatility. Recent candlesticks including hammer and bullish engulfing patterns suggest continued upside potential, provided the price can break above the key resistance at 0.6565.

Technical Trend: AUDUSD is currently in a decisively bullish trend with stable momentum indicating sustained upward movement in the short to medium term.

Technically, AUDUSD is holding robust support near its 50 and 100 SMA cluster with a bullish MACD trajectory. Hourly green signals such as golden crosses and bullish candlestick patterns suggest firmer buying momentum. The consolidation above these key averages reinforces a positive outlook toward challenging 0.6600 resistance. However, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility from global risk sentiment shifts and liquidity conditions.

Today’s economic calendar includes China’s November Manufacturing and Services PMI releases at 02:30 GMT+1. Manufacturing PMI slightly missed forecasts at 49.2 while Services PMI came in at 49.5, both indicating contraction. Though China is a major trading partner for Australia, these figures are unlikely to cause significant near-term impact on AUDUSD, potentially exerting mild downward pressure. No major economic events directly affecting AUD or USD are scheduled today, implying a neutral fundamental backdrop.

Resistance & Support

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