Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown notable volatility, fluctuating from yesterday’s closing price around 1.17158 down to a low near 1.1665 as market sentiment swung amid geopolitical tensions and shifting central bank policy expectations.

Recent market news highlights that escalating conflict in the Iran region has driven energy prices higher, posing a stagflation risk for the European Central Bank (ECB). Eurozone banks have sharply tightened credit access, compounding inflation pressures alongside economic growth slowdown. This environment weighs on the euro, as investors worry about ECB’s ability to adapt its monetary policy going forward.

At the same time, with the Federal Reserve’s rate decision approaching, uncertainty around the dollar’s direction contributed to EUR/USD’s modest dip below the 1.1700 level. Rising oil prices further cement expectations of a prolonged period of elevated inflation and interest rates.

For the average investor, this recent currency movement demonstrates how quickly geopolitical risks in the Middle East can ripple through global economic forecasts and monetary policy outlooks. Moving forward, monitoring upcoming central bank announcements and energy market developments will be crucial as they remain key drivers for EUR/USD dynamics.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD retreating from its yearly high of 1.20831, yet maintaining above the crucial 200-day moving average near 1.16807, indicating a consolidating but slightly bearish environment. Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling reduced volatility, and the MACD displays a near-zero crossover, reflecting an ambiguous momentum. Overall, the daily trend suggests a neutral to mildly bearish stance, with key support around 1.1650 needing to hold to sustain any bullish continuation.

1H Chart

The hourly chart for the last 3-5 days depicts EURUSD oscillating between 1.1750 and 1.1650, with several short-term reversal points noted. Recently, hammer candlesticks have appeared near the 1.1700 support, typically a bullish sign for a potential rebound. Bollinger Bands flatten with price residing near the middle band, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover at the recent bottom, implying improving short-term momentum. Should the 1.1700 hold, a bounce toward resistance at 1.1750 and 1.1800 is likely.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD is currently in a ‘volatile sideways’ phase, consolidating with no definitive trend, facing critical support tests, presenting both risks and opportunities in the near term.

The spotlight is on the 1.1700 support level for EURUSD amid growing ECB concerns over stagflation driven by geopolitical tensions and surging energy costs. Technical indicators show a short-term bullish MACD crossover and hammer candlestick formation on hourly charts, pointing to a potential rebound. However, daily chart metrics like narrowing Bollinger Bands and MACD near the zero line reflect an indecisive market with both bulls and bears vying for control. Volume remains subdued, indicative of a wait-and-see approach. Breaching 1.1650 could trigger increased bearish momentum, while holding above supports a cautious bullish outlook. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed policy signals closely to identify high-probability trade setups.

Today’s economic calendar in GMT+1 features several Eurozone data releases such as Sweden’s Q1 GDP, retail sales, Eurozone Money Supply M3, and consumer confidence indices, which will offer more clarity on the economic backdrop. However, the main driver for EURUSD today remains the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC interest rate decision and press conference scheduled at 20:00 and 20:30 GMT+1. The Fed’s policy tone will likely sway the dollar’s strength, thereby influencing EURUSD. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance, the dollar could appreciate, pressuring EURUSD lower; conversely, dovish comments could lend support to the euro. No other major direct events for EURUSD are scheduled today.

Resistance & Support

The above financial market data, quotes, charts, statistics, exchange rates, news, research, analysis, buy or sell ratings, financial education, and other information are for reference only. Before making any trades based on this information, you should consult independent professional advice to verify pricing data or obtain more detailed market information. 1uptick.com should not be regarded as soliciting any subscriber or visitor to execute any trade. You are solely responsible for all of your own trading decisions.