Over the past 24 to 48 hours, gold (XAUUSD) notably surged, testing new highs around $4,650, maintaining a strong bullish momentum compared to yesterday’s closing price of $4,650.01. The market’s strength mainly stems from investors’ concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and a weakening dollar, with the Treasury bond buyback plan emerging as a key driver.

Specifically, the market has focused on U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s plan to buy back long-dated Treasuries aimed at lowering long-term yields and weakening the dollar. This has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. With the Federal Reserve Chair’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, gold is absorbing positive sentiment ahead of this event. Should the tone turn dovish, gold prices could further push toward the $4,720 level.

In layman’s terms, when the U.S. government intervenes by purchasing long-term bonds to lower yields and weaken the dollar, gold prices tend to rise. Given ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties, gold continues to serve as a top choice for investors seeking safety and preservation of wealth. Market participants should closely watch the Fed chair’s remarks, as they will be pivotal for gold’s short-term trajectory.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows XAUUSD steadily ascending since early last week, with prices breaking above the 200-day moving average, confirming a sustained long-term bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands have shifted from contraction to expansion, signaling increased volatility and a probable breakout. The MACD recently formed a golden cross, supporting a bullish outlook. The steady rally from the 4500 USD range to new highs near 4650 USD indicates strong buying momentum and growing market confidence.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days demonstrates a clear short-term upward trend. Prices repeatedly tested and held above the 4600 USD support level, breaking above both the 50- and 100-hour moving averages, showing increased near-term momentum. The MACD histogram indicates strengthening momentum; RSI near 70 signals slight overbought conditions, suggesting cautious awareness of potential short-term pullbacks. Recent bullish engulfing candlesticks imply aggressive buying, likely pushing prices higher within the next 24 hours.

Technical Trend:  Strong and sustained uptrend

Technically, XAUUSD has broken above its 200-day moving average and formed a bullish golden cross on the daily chart, signaling a clear uptrend. Short-term bullish engulfing patterns indicate robust buying pressure. The expanding Bollinger Bands suggest heightened price volatility, highlighting the risk of minor pullbacks. Despite short-term correction risks, the dominant trend remains bullish, presenting opportunities to buy on dips.

Today’s economic calendar highlights retail sales data out of Poland, showing a slight decline from previous figures, but with limited direct influence on XAUUSD. New Zealand’s retail sales underperformed expectations but have minimal effect on gold prices. Overall, no major economic events today are expected to have a direct significant impact on gold, with market focus remaining on US bond policies and US dollar trends.

Resistance & Support

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