Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair has experienced mild fluctuations, trading around yesterday’s closing price of 1.16128. The price oscillated modestly between 1.1611 and 1.16162, reflecting market sensitivity to recent dollar dynamics amid a somewhat easing geopolitical environment.

According to recent market news, the US dollar firmed amid ongoing Trump-Xi trade talks and a stable ceasefire in the Middle East, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) up to 99.28. This dollar strength exerted downward pressure on the euro, with EUR/USD testing key breakdown levels below 1.1570.

For the average investor, this suggests that despite some de-escalation in global tensions, the dollar has gained support on strong economic and political signals, while the euro remains under pressure. Investors should closely watch upcoming developments in US-China diplomatic talks, as well as changes in oil prices and US economic data, as these will remain the key drivers behind the current EUR/USD price action.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a clear downtrend in EURUSD, primarily driven by a strengthening US Dollar and stabilizing geopolitical conditions. Prices have fallen from around 1.17, pressured by the 50-day and 200-day moving averages which act as resistance. The pair is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating continued selling pressure. The MACD shows persistent bearish momentum with no immediate signs of reversal, suggesting the downtrend remains dominant in the medium term.

1H Chart

In the past 3-5 days, the hourly chart shows increased price volatility with short-term moving averages crossing bearish signals. Bollinger Bands contraction hints at decreasing volatility but possible breakout soon. A recent bearish engulfing candlestick pattern suggests ongoing short-term downside risk, although MACD is attempting to form a bullish crossover that is yet unconfirmed. Price is currently oscillating between 1.1570 and 1.1620, highlighting a consolidation phase that traders should monitor closely.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD is currently in a cautiously bearish consolidation phase with a medium-term downtrend prevailing. A decisive break of key support levels will define the next directional move.

Technically, EURUSD trades below multiple key moving averages with MACD and RSI confirming bearish momentum but showing slight room for a bounce. The daily chart reveals a descending flag pattern, a continuation signal pointing to possible acceleration in the downward move. Recent hourly candlesticks such as engulfing and hammer patterns indicate minor short-term correction attempts but no trend reversal yet. Watch the 1.1600 support zone closely; a break below there may open the door towards 1.1570 and 1.1500.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar highlights important events for EURUSD, including the ECB President’s speech at 10:00 and EU retail sales data at 11:00. While recent retail data showed mixed results, the ECB speech may shift market expectations. Later US labour market reports at 14:30 will likely influence USD strength and indirectly EURUSD. Should US data outperform forecasts, USD could strengthen further, pressuring EURUSD downward. Conversely, weaker US numbers might ease this pressure, offering relief to the pair.

Resistance & Support

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