Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the AUD/USD pair has experienced notable volatility, falling from yesterday’s closing price of 0.71721 to a low near 0.70837 today, marking a decline of around 0.9%. This reflects short-term adjustment pressures in the market. Several factors have converged to influence the Aussie dollar’s movement, notably former US President Trump’s trade remarks, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate stance, and global energy supply risks.

Market updates reveal that Trump’s trade statements have triggered risk-off sentiment, putting pressure on the US dollar and impacting commodity-linked currencies like the AUD alongside copper prices. The RBA remains cautious on further rate hikes amid inflation concerns fueled by rising oil prices and China’s sluggish recovery. Meanwhile, the upcoming Australian employment report is poised to provide fresh direction to the AUD’s short-term price action.

For an average investor, the recent AUD volatility is driven by a complex blend of geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic data points – similar to watching an intricate narrative unfold that moves currencies and commodities with market sentiment waves. Staying alert to upcoming economic releases and policy news is critical to navigating these uncertain waters and capitalizing on emerging opportunities.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows AUDUSD in a clear uptrend since its year-low around 0.63735, approaching this year’s high of 0.72774. The price remains above key moving averages—50-day (0.70885) and 200-day (0.67699)—underlining a sustained bullish trend. Bollinger Bands indicate a mild contraction in volatility, while MACD histogram expansion supports ongoing upward momentum. Overall, the daily price action confirms strong structural bullishness.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart covering the past 3-5 days, AUDUSD has corrected downward briefly before rebounding. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bullishly, signaling renewed short-term buying interest. Bollinger Bands expanded upwards, reflecting increased volatility in the short term. MACD turned positive and a bullish engulfing candle pattern emerged recently, implying likely continuation of upward price movement over the next 24 hours.

Technical Trend:  The current trend direction is decisively bullish.

Technically, AUDUSD shows strong bullish momentum after completing a corrective wave. MACD bullish crossover and RSI above 50 confirm upward energy. The price breaking above the Bollinger midline with rising volatility, combined with a bullish engulfing candlestick, signals a high-probability buy setup for the next trading day.

There are no major economic events directly impacting AUDUSD today based on the GMT+1 calendar. While multiple countries release producer price indices and UK consumer price indices, their direct influence on AUDUSD is limited. Traders should keep focus on the upcoming Australian employment report, which holds greater relevance for this pair.

Resistance & Support

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