In the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD currency pair has shown clear weakness, with the exchange rate dipping close to the 1.1400 mark. This movement reflects the recent escalation in US-Iran geopolitical tensions, which has boosted demand for the US Dollar, directly pressuring the Euro. Using yesterday’s closing price of 1.13947 as a reference, the shifting political risks have been the dominant force, weighing on the Euro.

Meanwhile, major investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered its 6- and 12-month EUR/USD targets to 1.12, signaling a conservative outlook on the Euro’s prospects amid heightened risks. This forecast downgrade further increases investor doubts about the Euro, prompting increased selling pressure.

For the average investor, this means that due to geopolitical instability and divergent growth paths in major economies, the Euro’s short-term return potential may be constrained with exchange rate depreciation risks. Under the current uncertain global economic and political environment, investors should exercise caution, closely monitoring the US Dollar index and geopolitical developments that may impact currency movements.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD is in a downtrend since reaching its yearly high at 1.2023 earlier this year. Prices remain below the 50-day (around 1.1565) and 200-day (around 1.1646) moving averages, confirming medium- to long-term bearish momentum. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility but maintain a downward tilt. The MACD stays below zero with decreasing histogram bars, signalling weakening bearish momentum but no reversal yet. A bearish flag pattern has formed recently, suggesting further downside potential towards yearly lows if support fails to hold.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart over the past 3-5 days, EURUSD traded within a tight range between 1.1380 and 1.1450. It recently faced resistance around 1.1440 and pulled back. The 20-hour moving average continues to cap price advances, and the MACD hovers below zero, suggesting overall weak short-term momentum. A recent bearish engulfing candlestick warns of possible intensified selling in the next 24 hours. Short-term traders should watch the critical support zone at 1.1380–1.1400 for signs of a rebound or further declines.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is cautiously bearish, driven by USD strength amid geopolitical tensions and bearish technical patterns. While a short-term technical rebound remains possible, the medium-term bias favors downside continuation.

Technically, EURUSD shows clear short-term selling pressure with a sustained bearish flag on the daily chart, indicating potential continuation of the downward trend. The recent bearish engulfing candle confirms selling interest in the near term. MACD histogram contraction suggests bearish momentum is weakening but not reversing yet, so investors should watch closely for confirmed breakout signals. Key support around 1.1380 is critical; a breach could trigger further downside towards the yearly low.

There are no significant or directly relevant economic events affecting EURUSD today (GMT+1). The market will likely remain influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments and broad USD move, with technical factors playing a primary role in price action.

Resistance & Support

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