Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD currency pair has experienced notable activity, hovering slightly above yesterday’s closing price of 1.15744. Driven by a combination of factors, the pair reached an intraday high near 1.15783 during this period.

Weak US retail sales data fell short of expectations, weighing on the US dollar, while growing market consensus points to a Federal Reserve pause in interest rate hikes. This dynamic has weakened the dollar’s appeal. Conversely, comparatively hawkish stances from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) have bolstered the euro and pound. This contrast has fueled bullish momentum behind EUR/USD, instilling confidence among investors.

Put simply for the average investor: recent weakness in US consumer spending and tempered inflation expectations have reduced US dollar demand. Meanwhile, the ECB’s ongoing tough monetary stance has made the euro more attractive. It’s akin to the US dollar taking a backseat while the euro steps into the spotlight, pushing prices higher.

Looking ahead, the market is closely watching the upcoming July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with core inflation in focus. Expectations are for easing inflation, which could further influence dollar strength and EUR/USD price movements. Investors should keep these fundamental developments in mind to capitalize on potential forex market opportunities.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD in a steady uptrend since the start of 2026, with prices holding above the 50-day moving average at around 1.1466 yet beneath the 200-day moving average near 1.1626, creating a resistance zone. An expanding wedge pattern is prominent, with prices oscillating upward recently. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting an imminent breakout. The MACD shows sustained bullish momentum, although the histogram indicates slight waning, warranting attention to short-term trend continuity.

1H Chart

Over the past 3-5 days on the hourly chart, EURUSD has exhibited phased upward swings, testing key resistance levels at 1.1570 and 1.1600 multiple times. The 20 SMA has recently crossed above the 50 SMA, breaking the Bollinger middle band, signalling strengthening short- and medium-term buying pressure. MACD remains positive and expanding with a recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern emerging, indicative of potential further gains in the next 24 hours.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD currently exhibits a ‘cautiously bullish’ moderate uptrend, with the potential to break through recent range resistance but facing challenges from longer-term moving averages.

Technically, EURUSD is forming an expanding wedge pattern confirmed on the daily chart, with MACD bullish momentum sustained. Bollinger Bands narrowing and short-term moving averages aligned bullishly on the hourly chart support further upside. The recent bullish engulfing candle represents strong short-term buying potential. Tracking volume and momentum indicators ahead of ECB communication and inflation data will be critical to identify high-probability trading opportunities.

Today, in the GMT+1 timezone, key events include a speech by the European Central Bank Chairman at 09:10 and the release of the Eurozone’s July Harmonised Consumer Price Indices at 11:00. These events are closely watched for insights into ECB policy and inflation trends, directly impacting EURUSD. There are no major US economic events scheduled today, putting primary focus on European data and commentary as market movers.

Resistance & Support

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